India cinema-goers' pivot to streaming films online instead: 'a disaster for Bollywood'?

Before the pandemic forced all the cinemas in New Delhi to shut, Vivek Mehta used to watch a movie every weekend and share his thoughts about it in a WhatsApp group called "First Day First Show".

Cinemas in the Indian capital reopened over a year ago but Mehta has been to a theatre only once in the last six months, to watch the Hindi-language film Drishyam 2.

Nowadays, he prefers to stay at home and make use of the plethora of video-streaming platforms operating in India - a habit he says almost became an addiction when the country was under Covid lockdown. "I watch Iranian, Spanish, Dutch, and Latin-American films, besides others," he said.

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Like Mehta, the viewing habits of countless Indians have changed amid the pandemic - a phenomenon that's giving producers in the US$2.5 billion Bollywood film industry sleepless nights, as box-office receipts have long been its biggest source of income.

Cinemas in India were either closed or else ordered to only operate at half capacity for much of 2020 and 2021. They have been gradually making a comeback since, but not to the extent that industry executives had expected amid a string of high-profile flops.

"[It] has been a disaster for Bollywood. For every one hit, there have been 10 flops," said Tarun Adarsh, a film trade analyst, in December. Most of the films failed to connect with audiences because they were made before the pandemic, when producers were betting on top film stars to ensure box-office success, he said.

The allure of star power alone no longer appears to sway India's film lovers, who are exposed to a wider array of storylines and visuals in the movies through video streaming platforms.

"Now films with great stories and lesser stars work better than films with average stories but featuring stars," said Kamal Nahta, a film industry analyst. "Youngsters have forgotten how to go to cinemas."

Indian film studios worked to protect their bottom lines during the country's cinema closures by launching new releases on streaming platforms such as Amazon Prime, Disney Hotstar and Netflix - but this also changed Indians' viewing habits.

In 2021, more than 100 films were released directly onto Indian streaming platforms, being watched in over 4,000 towns and cities, according to a March report on the country's media and entertainment from professional services giant EY.

The report found that the 4,000-figure compared "favourably" with pre-pandemic "mega movie releases" that had reached up to 3,500 of India's cinema screens, while also noting that the total number of screens in the country fell to 9,423 in 2021 from 9,601 in 2018 - with some 1,000 of these open only intermittently at best.

All this doom and gloom has triggered a debate in India on whether audiences will ever return to cinemas in the same way, but there are signs that a recovery is likely by next year.

Ashish Pherwani, media and entertainment partner at EY, sees revenues improving as producers become more willing to spend more on films; movie-goers shrug off any lingering Covid-related fears about going to the cinema; and more new releases appear in theatres, instead of just on streaming platforms.

Indian film revenues plunged amid the pandemic, but are forecast to reach 212 billion rupees (US$2.56 billion) by 2024, according to EY - exceeding the 191 billion rupees the industry made in 2019.

The streaming platforms' share of that total is expected to increase over time, although industry sources have sounded a note of caution as overseas investments in the sector have slowed amid the threat of global recession.

Indian film producer Siddharth Roy Kapur, founder and managing director of Roy Kapur Films, said he expected 2023 to see a return to the "traditional route" of films being screened in cinemas first before being released on India streaming platforms.

Deals signed during the country's cinema closures likely made 2022 a "hybrid year" in which some films were released in cinemas while others went straight to streaming, he said.

Kapur has hope that India's Hindi-language film industry is now turning a corner, on the back of a handful of box-office successes last year including Brahmastra: Part One - Shiva, The Kashmir Files, Drishyam 2 featuring Ajay Devgun, and Unchai with Bollywood superstar Amitabh Bachchan.

"What [the success of] Drishyam 2 and Unchai show is that if you make a really great film with superb content - even if they are not commercial blockbusters - then the audiences will come in," Kapur said.

"There were many people who were ringing the bells of doom for the theatre-going experience. But it is clear that the fact that people enjoy going to a cinema and watching a film has not changed."

This year is set to see Shah Rukh Khan, one of Bollywood's biggest stars, return to the big screen after four years away with three new releases - Pathaan, Jawan and Dunki. Salman Khan, another top actor, is also expected to return with Tiger 3, the third instalment in a franchise that includes blockbusters Ek Tha Tiger and Tiger Zinda Hai.

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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