China's change in Covid policy doesn't compel students in US to return for holiday

Though China has announced it will abandon quarantine for incoming travellers starting on January 8, there will not be a stampede of US-based Chinese students returning home for Lunar New Year or in the spring.

A mix of factors including high airfare, concern over rampant infections in China, school schedules and even concerns over US visas are preventing the rush home. Eager to put years of pandemic separation behind them, many students say a return later in the year makes more sense.

"Many people think that even if they go back home now, they couldn't really go out because they live with their family who is older and more concerned about Covid," said Viola, a Chinese graduate student at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington.

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"There really is no rush now. The most important factor is probably that many people could easily come back this summer without quarantine when the first waves of infection are over."

School breaks in North America generally do not coincide with Lunar New Year, though Viola said that because the holiday falls a bit earlier than usual - from January 22 to February 5 - some people may have been willing to miss school, if other factors could fall into place.

China has put strict restrictions on cross-border travellers for nearly three years, which hindered Chinese students abroad from coming home and also became a stumbling block for foreign students and others going to China.

On Monday, the Chinese central government limited pre-arrival requirements to a single PCR test within 48 hours of departure, a stark contrast to the multiple steps that cost travellers hundreds of dollars in previous months. On Tuesday, Beijing said it would increase the number of incoming international flights in stages and further "optimise" arrangements for foreigners to visit China.

Chinese authorities stopped releasing daily Covid-19 caseload data starting on Sunday and passed the task to a disease control agency, a practice more in line with management of lower-level infectious diseases. Before that, an unverified memo from a National Health Commission meeting estimated that nearly 248 million - about 18 per cent of China's population - had been infected between December 1 and 20.

China's top epidemiologist said on December 17 that the country would experience three "waves" of infection from mid-December to mid-March.

Renee Ren, a part-time MBA candidate at New York University's Stern School of Business, said she has not made plans to return to China despite not having gone home for years.

"I feel that the domestic epidemic situation in China is still unstable and I need to wait and see how it develops," said Ren, adding that the potentially long wait time for getting a new work visa to return to the US was another concern.

Still, she said "it is good to reopen" since her family can more easily travel to the US.

For the more than 290,000 Chinese students in the US, other factors include class schedules and expensive flights.

There are currently some 36 flights between China and the US per week, higher than that of the beginning of the year but still only about 10 per cent of pre-pandemic levels.

A one-way economy class flight from San Francisco to Shanghai in January 2023, operated by United Airlines, costs between US$2,093 and US$4,093. In 2019, comparable tickets were being sold for a few hundred dollars.

Mike, a Chinese student at the University of California Berkeley law school, said that had the policy announcement come earlier in December, more students might have decided to go home for the school's winter holidays. He noted that Berkeley's break was short and that school resumed on January 9.

Xu Shengnan, an MBA student at the University of Pennsylvania, said she was "not very worried" about the situation at home.

"I have already got Covid-19 abroad, and I think I already have good immunity, so I can't wait to return home immediately," she said, adding that she was eyeing a potential spring break trip.

On November 11, China announced that it would shorten quarantine from "7+3" (seven days of centralised quarantine and three days of health observation at home) to "5+3". It also announced the end of the "circuit breaker" policy through which airlines had to suspend a route for one or two weeks depending on the percentage of people who tested positive on the flight - which coincided with high flight prices and cancellations.

"Many people saw the signal with the shortened quarantine period, so they decided early on like me," said Viola, who made the decision in November to return to China during her school's winter break.

Angie Shen, a Chinese PhD candidate at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, made the same call in November, noting that flights became noticeably cheaper after the policy change.

"For people who have not been home in like three years, tickets just became much more affordable," Shen said.

Others don't plan to return to China in the near term regardless of Covid policy.

Said Johnson, a senior at George Washington University who helped spearhead campus protests against China's coronavirus restrictions in October and November: "I don't think any Covid policy changes in China will affect my plan. Although I can afford the cost, I feel it is not worthwhile to do so. I think many of my friends have similar reasons."

"I feel I can do a lot more meaningful work on the democratic movement in the US, so I do not want to waste my last holiday before graduation in China where I may do little and suffer a higher risk."

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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