Japan is upgrading China to a defence 'threat'. A long overdue move?

Japan will upgrade China to an "unprecedented strategic challenge" in its revised National Security Strategy, with analysts saying the move that took nearly a decade of discussions is long overdue given geopolitical changes in the region.

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner Komeito agreed on Monday to revise the strategy document for the first time since it was drawn up in 2013.

The policy paper, along with the updated National Defence Strategy and National Defence Programme Guidelines, will be submitted to the cabinet for confirmation this week before going to the Diet for approval.

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It coincides with the recent announcement by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida that Japan would significantly raise defence spending, to account for 2 per cent of gross domestic product by 2027.

Tokyo has for many years adhered to an unofficial policy that limited defence spending to 1 per cent of GDP, although that has been creeping higher over the last decade.

According to media reports, the new version of the National Security Strategy document refers to China as "a threat", a significant escalation from the 2013 paper which described Beijing as "an issue of concern to the international community".

The initial draft for the new version stated that Chinese missiles that came down within Japan's exclusive economic zone around Okinawa prefecture in August were "a threat to Japan and the people of the region".

That phrasing prompted a debate within the ruling coalition, with Komeito apparently resisting the use of the word "threat". The solution appears to have been to keep the term "threat" but delete the direct reference to Japan, although there is little doubt about Tokyo's position today.

"When the original document was first released in 2013, there was a lot of sensitivity over the wording," said Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi, a project assistant professor at the Research Centre for Advanced Science and Technology at the University of Tokyo.

"Japan was very careful as there was some fear over a strong reaction from China, not necessarily a military reaction but potentially an economic reaction ... China has developed significantly since then and has become active in the South China Sea, in the East China Sea and in the Taiwan Strait.

"Now, Japan has reached the conclusion that it is the time to be more candid, more bold and more realistic," Hinata-Yamaguchi said.

James Brown, a professor of international relations at the Tokyo campus of Temple University, said revisions to the original document were overdue, given the geopolitical changes in Northeast Asia over the last decade.

"It has been clear for some years that the 2013 version needed to be updated and for Japan to respond to the changing situation, but Japanese politics and bureaucracy take an incredible amount of time to do that," he said. "We have finally got there, but because of the time it has taken, I don't think there will be any surprises in the new version."

The new document would "reflect the threats that Japan faces from three immediate neighbours: Russia, North Korea - primarily from its missiles - and China", he said. "But of those, China is clearly seen as the most worrying."

That concern has filtered through to the Japanese public, which has been horrified by footage of the conflict in Ukraine and suggestions that China is preparing to launch a similar assault on Taiwan. While support for a significant increase in defence spending may have met resistance in the past, recent polls indicate most Japanese - more than 80 per cent - support government plans to ramp up defence spending.

With the public on his side, Kishida has said he intends to lift defence spending from 5.2 trillion yen (US$37.8 billion) a year at present to 6.5 trillion yen in 2023. In 2027, that figure is set to increase to 9 trillion yen, equivalent to 2 per cent of Japan's GDP.

"What we are seeing is a complete package of policy and funding being put into play because Japan has to be able to back up any warnings," Hinata-Yamaguchi said.

The new policy paper explicitly states that Japan intends to develop a domestic "counterstrike capability" that would target facilities that the country's intelligence services had determined were preparing to launch a missile against Japan.

Funds are also set to go towards the development of stand-off missiles, advanced fighter aircraft and the "hardening" of existing bases, as well as drones and cyber- and space defence.

Hinata-Yamaguchi emphasised, however, that the Japanese Self-Defence Forces' logistics and supplies were in critical need of attention, calling reports of shortages of equipment and munitions "extremely disturbing".

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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