Is Myanmar junta's new execution notice driven by 'paranoia' over soldiers' deaths?

Rights groups have urged the international community to pressure Myanmar's military to reverse its decision to execute 10 people, a move observers say comes as a response to the killings of high-ranking soldiers by anti-coup fighters.

Those on death row include seven students from Dagon University who reportedly participated in anti-coup protests and in the resistance against the junta's rule, while three others also face capital punishment for allegedly killing a ward administrator in Yangon in May.

The announcement last week brought the tally of those on death row to 139 since the February 2021 coup, according to the United Nations, which accused the regime of using capital punishment as a "tool to crush opposition". In July, an ex-lawmaker and a democracy activist were among four people executed.

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Mikael Gravers, associate professor emeritus at Aarhus University in Denmark, said the deaths of high-ranking officers and regime administrators in recent weeks had triggered a "growing paranoia" among Myanmar's generals.

Seven junta soldiers were this week killed in southwestern Tanintharyi Region as they clashed with the People's Defense Forces (PDF) formed by the exiled National Unity Government (NUG). Last month, an army major and a captain were among at least 45 soldiers killed as the PDF and ethnic armed organisations escalated their attacks in various areas, including in Rakhine and Kayah states and Mandalay.

"The death sentences seem to have a three-fold purpose," Gravers said. To "avenge the killings of regime supporters", scare off the young fighters from continuing their attacks against regime troops, and "assure the military rank-and-file and their families that the regime protects them".

Myanmar citizens have taken to social media to protest against the death penalties using hashtags such as "StopExecuteOurStudents", and urged foreign governments to act against the junta.

The Dagon University Students' Union called the planned execution of the students "an act of vengeance" that highlighted "the tragic situation in the country's courtrooms and the collapse of the entire legal system after the military coup" which toppled the elected civilian government led by Aung San Suu Kyi.

The Myanmar Student Association Ontario called on the Canadian government to pressure and condemn the upcoming executions, while Human Rights Watch and the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners group on Tuesday urged the junta to "immediately commute the death sentences" and impose a moratorium on the death penalty.

Charles Santiago, chair of the Asean Parliamentarians for Human Rights, said the junta had shown it did not care about external criticism and was determined to retain power at all costs.

The previous executions of four political prisoners, the shelling and torching of villages, and the "appalling array of atrocities" by the military had only one objective: "Cowing the Myanmar people into submission."

But Santiago said it was difficult to tell if international pressure could change the junta's course of action, as the Myanmar generals were "utterly unpredictable".

"It has sometimes been the case that they show a certain 'magnanimity' in order to burnish their image, as when they released a few political prisoners recently," Santiago said, referring to the release last month of prisoners, including foreign nationals, as part of a broader amnesty.

"It may be possible that they would delay or stop the executions, and that would be good news, but we should not commend the junta for that while they are committing crimes against humanity on a daily basis," headded.

Myanmar policy analyst Win Min said the junta would only respond to the type of pressure that would affect their status quo and interests.

For instance, when Asean stepped up its pressure against Myanmar to implement the Five Point Consensus peace plan, "the junta released a few political prisoners", Win Min noted.

"That is not to be taken as a sign of the junta getting softer; it's rather their response to increased pressure," he said.

Continued pressure from the global community could compel the junta to restrain from violence, Win Min added.

These included Asean openly engaging with organisations such as the NUG in exile; or the Committee Representing the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw, a coalition of legislators who won seats in the 2020 general election and were aligned with Suu Kyi; as well as ethnic resistance organisations.

Other potential economic pressures include refusing to sell fighter jets to the junta, a jet fuel embargo, sanctions on Myanmar oil and gas, and disengaging with military-owned and linked businesses, Win Min said.

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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