Asean leaders 'unlikely' to chastise Russia over Ukraine war as summit season begins

Southeast Asian countries are likely to steer clear of damaging ties with Russia at the string of diplomatic gatherings this month even as they face growing pressures from Western leaders, analysts said.

The year-end diplomatic bustle kicked off on Thursday with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) Summit in Phnom Penh, with top Russian and Ukrainian diplomats there.

The global impact of the war in Ukraine - from rising energy and food prices to supply chain disruptions - is set to dominate discussions at the G20 Summit in Bali later this month.

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is likely to attend the meeting, but Vladimir Putin will not, according to Russia's embassy in Indonesia. Moscow's delegation will instead be led by the country's foreign minister.

At the Asean Summit on Thursday, the regional bloc signed a Treaty of Amity and Cooperation with Ukraine, paving the way for the establishment of formal relations with Kyiv.

Cambodia's foreign minister Prak Sokhonn lauded the step as a "significant achievement", calling it a "true testimony and a clear recognition of Asean's relevance" and its role in global affairs.

Earlier in the day, a senior Cambodian foreign affairs official also stressed Asean's hope for peace in Ukraine. "Conflicts will only lead to more suffering for the innocent people, and that's not something we want to see," Kung Phoak, a secretary of state in Cambodia's foreign ministry, told reporters.

Despite these developments, analysts expect Southeast Asian nations to continue building ties with Moscow at the summits, and to stick to their muted and cautious approach to the Ukraine war.

"Southeast Asian countries won't take a firmer stance against Russia at the summits," said Ian Storey, senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, noting that governments have expressed their positions on the conflict individually and collectively.

While most countries in the region have aired some concerns over the war, only Singapore has levied sanctions against Russia, a move that has landed the city state on Moscow's list of "unfriendly countries".

Even as Western leaders pile pressure on governments to do more as the war enters its eighth month, there has been a fear of retaliation from Moscow, with whom some have complex trade and security ties.

Sharon Seah, another senior fellow from the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, pointed out that Asean has failed to reach a consensus on allowing Ukrainian President Zelensky to deliver a video statement at the Asean Summit.

"It is a shame but this is the reality of being at this important inflection point in geopolitics and the long shadow of the US-China relationship is upon Asean states," she said. "There is a wariness of offending the dragon in the room."

Charles Dunst, an associate at strategic advisory firm Asia Group, said most leaders hope to "largely stay out of" Russia's war in Ukraine, and would prefer to focus on issues more pertinent to their people such as rising cost of living and energy shortages.

"A serious change to that stance is unlikely at the moment," he added.

Dunst pointed out that a history of strong ties with Russia for some countries, including Laos and Vietnam, has played a role in their backing of the Kremlin.

But the rest of the region has essentially extended Asean's commitment to non-interference to the conflict, and has attempted to maintain ties with both Russia and Ukraine without outrightly picking a side.

"They don't see much benefit in picking a side, and they remain wary of the use of sanctions as a disciplinary tool," he said.

As the West seeks to further isolate Russia, Dunst noted that Moscow would seek to solidify relations with Asean nations, in a bid to "push back on the notion that Russia has become an isolated pariah state".

He cited Putin's recent outreach to military-held Myanmar as well as the visit by Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov to Vietnam as examples of such efforts.

"I would expect Russia to continue engaging Asean members but those efforts seem unlikely to produce stronger ties beyond Myanmar and perhaps Laos and Vietnam," he said.

But Storey, the senior fellow, suggested that Russia's engagement with the region could be limited as Putin would likely be absent from the trio of back-to-back summits, including the G20 and Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) gatherings in Bali and Bangkok.

It is also unlikely that Putin would travel to the Cambodian capital of Phnom Penh for the East Asia Summit, a broader forum held among Asean states and its dialogue partners where US President Joe Biden would be present.

It would be "awkward" with Biden there and with Cambodian leader Hun Sen "quite critical" of Russia's actions, he said.

"Russia is clearly losing the war in Ukraine, and Putin will be wary of a palace coup if he is outside the country. His presence is likely to be virtual, and shunned by many of the other participating countries."

Storey also noted that Russia has become "even less relevant" to Southeast Asia since the war started.

"For the region, the main outcomes of the Kremlin's actions are all negative: higher food, energy and commodity prices, further supply chain disruptions, and the undermining of multilateral processes," he said.

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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