I would say the most likely fate for Earth as we know it will come from within. Whether it is a nuclear war, mutated virus, climate catastrophe or collapse of civilisation, you only need to look at history to see where the future may go. That’s part of my reason for believing humanity should establish a second biosphere to safeguard civilisation, culture and technology from our mistakes, sort of like seed banks.
Those human-made collapses would still yield the most life-friendly planet in the Solar System. We have a long time until the Sun turns into a red giant and our oceans boil away. Hopefully we will be out of the Solar System by then. There is always the Jovian system, which might be more habitable as the Sun
