Indonesia's presidential election is not until 2024, but the battle for power is under way. Who's in the race?

With Indonesian President Joko Widodo barred by the constitution from seeking a third term, the 2024 presidential election will be wide open, meaning voters can choose a candidate propped up by the old guard or an outsider, as Widodo once was, to lead the world's third-largest democracy.

Speculation is already rife about some figures, including twice-defeated presidential nominee turned Defence Minister, Prabowo Subianto; Widodo himself, who has repeatedly been rumoured to be seeking constitutional amendments to allow him to run again; and newcomers such as regional leaders Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo and outgoing Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan.

Party leaders also have their eyes on running, with billboards about top politicians like Puan Maharani from the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) and Airlangga Hartarto, the chairman of another party, Golkar, lining roads across the country.

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These advertisements have stoked further speculation, particularly on whether the PDIP will nominate Puan - daughter of former president and party chair Megawati Sukarnoputri, herself the daughter of a president - or fellow PDIP cadre Ganjar, who has consistently ranked among the top preferred presidential candidates by pollsters.

Analysts have pointed out that Jakarta's political elite still has a strong grip on Indonesia's elections, so non-party candidates, such as Anies, will have to seek endorsements by so-called kingmakers to be able to run, which in turn will limit their leeway in implementing their agendas if they do end up leading the country.

However, up to 60 per cent of voters in the next election will be dominated by Gen-Z and millennials, broadly speaking the cohort aged between 18 and 40, many of whom rely on the internet to make informed decisions, including voting choices. That could lead to social-media savvy figures like Ganjar coming out on top. Other newcomers will also have a shot at the presidency, assuming that they have a proven track record.

Here are some of the names who could participate in Indonesia's next presidential election.

If the presidential election was to take place now, Ganjar Pranowo would likely win, according to polling firm Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC), which found last month that the Central Java governor was preferred by 44.6 per cent of respondents. Prabowo came second, with 25.7 per cent.

The 53-year-old politician has nearly a decade of experience as a member of the House of Representatives from the PDIP faction. He has also won twice in the Central Java election for governor, serving as the region's leader since 2013. Ganjar is also active on Twitter and Instagram, with eight million followers across the two.

He has followed Widodo's blusukan (hands-on and impromptu) style of communicating with constituents, not hesitating to go to traditional markets and poor neighbourhoods to meet them and take public transport.

"He wants to portray that he is a leader that does not distance himself from the public, that he's not rigid. He embodies Widodo's legacy in politics," said Pangi Syarwi Chaniago, executive director at Jakarta-based polling firm Voxpol.

But Ganjar's path to presidency may not be smooth as his political vehicle, PDIP, has not yet decided on whether to nominate Ganjar or Puan Maharani. Megawati may choose her daughter as a successor of the Sukarno clan, although it may mean the party risks losing the election.

This week Ganjar was endorsed to run by the non-parliamentary Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI), which he is not a member of. That endorsement may not be significant but could speed up other parties' declarations of support for Ganjar.

Alongside Ganjar and Prabowo, Anies has also been at the top of polls recently. In the SMRC poll last month, he was preferred by 21.7 per cent of respondents.

Unlike the two other names, Anies is a non-party figure, although this week he earned the endorsement of the Nasdem party, whose chairman, media tycoon Surya Paloh, dubbed Anies as among "the best" political figures in Indonesia.

While Nasdem is part of Widodo's party coalition, the party still needs to team up with other parties to meet the nomination threshold in 2024. In Indonesia, political parties need to have 20 per cent of seats in parliament to name a candidate in a presidential election.

Political observers predict that Anies will also be endorsed by the opposition Democratic Party and Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), an Islamic organisation. But his strength as a candidate comes from his background as a non-party figure and an academic, said Wasisto Raharjo Jati, a political expert with the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN).

"But if elected, he needs to form a political force to back his agenda, which makes him vulnerable to certain political powers' [interests]," Wasisto said.

The former education minister has also been criticised for his perceived alliance with Islamic conservative groups. Anies won the divisive 2017 Jakarta governor election amid a blasphemy scandal, with opponent Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, the non-Muslim former governor, jailed after being accused of mocking a Koran verse.

As a speaker of the House and daughter of Megawati, generally seen as Widodo's political matriarch, Puan, on paper, has a strong chance of winning the election. But her status as successor of a political dynasty may backfire if voters decide they prefer a candidate with a proven track record rather than a famous family.

In the polls, the 49-year-old politician is rarely named as one of the top three candidates, and last year was heavily criticised for plastering Indonesian roads with billboards about her when the country faced an economic downturn caused by the pandemic.

Political analysts generally agree the PDIP risks losing the presidential election if it nominates Puan, instead of the popular Ganjar. In the past month Puan has launched her own political safari, including a visit to Defence Minister Prabowo at his estate in Bogor, West Java, where she rode a horse once ridden by Widodo.

The meeting triggered speculation that the PDIP will team up with Gerindra, Prabowo's party, in 2024, and designate Puan as Prabowo's running mate. In August Prabowo declared his intention to run in 2024.

"But the question now is whether PDIP, the winner of the [2019] legislative election, would be satisfied if they only nominate a vice presidential candidate? I'm not so sure about that," said Voxpol's Pangi.

He expects the PDIP will declare its nominee at the "last minute", just like the 2014 election when it went with Widodo.

Agus, commonly known as AHY, is the eldest son of former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and currently leader of the Democratic Party.

He is from a military background although his highest rank was major while his father rose higher, becoming a general. Agus retired from the military in 2016 and followed his father's footsteps into politics.

Unlike the other candidates he has never won an election, losing against Anies in the 2017 Jakarta governor ballot. But he is only 44, which may prove beneficial, attracting votes from the young professional demographic, said Wasisto.

"But AHY's transition period from the military to civil life has not been that long, which means that he is yet to possess the political experience needed [to run in the presidential election]," he added.

Andika Perkasa, the current military (TNI) chief, has been tipped by political analysts as a potential candidate after his retirement this December.

The 57-year-old general is the son-in-law of former general AM Hendropriyono, who used to be chairman of the Indonesian Justice and Unity Party. In the past three elections it did not meet the threshold to seat a representative in parliament.

The Harvard graduate has introduced progressive policies to the military, including more intensive training and joint drills with other nations.

In July he told army commanders that the medical check-up requirements for female officers should be similar to those required for men, signalling an end to abusive virginity tests.

"His chance at the election will be the same as Puan's, he can win if he's nominated as a vice presidential candidate, instead of president. The civil and military [candidates] coupling may work as TNI's image is still relatively good among the public," Pangi said.

"I don't think there will be resistance if Andika is nominated as a vice presidential candidate."

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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