Cambridge, Massachusetts,
The 36% jump in Biogen’s share price last week following the release of data from its Alzheimer’s drug trial “looks impressive” but “implies some scepticism” that Biogen, together with Japanese partner Eisai, have found the “holy grail” of a cure for the disease, says Robert Cyran in Breakingviews. In a trial of around 1,800 patients in the early stage of Alzheimer’s, their drug, lecanemab, delayed cognitive decline by 27% compared to a placebo. Doctors will debate whether this is clinically meaningful, particularly given that measuring disease progression is difficult, but if it does work, the $11bn “pop” in Biogen’s market cap suggests investors are being conservative. It implies $6.5bn of sales in five years. If the drug is priced at $20,000 per patient, that would mean around 330,000 people take it, which is less than 25% of the 1.5 million Americans with early-stage Alzheimer’s. “This seems like a low bar. Decades of failure to find a cure explain why investors are gun-shy” and lecanemab still faces
