More than ever, Vladimir Putin resembles the captain of the Titanic: steaming full speed ahead towards disaster, deluded by inaccurate assumptions about his ship’s invincibility. There’s no avoiding catastrophe. In Ukraine, that was not necessarily true until now. Putin’s speech last week, mobilising reserves, preparing territorial annexations, and threatening nuclear war, might easily have followed a different tack.
Instead of escalating, he could have claimed victory, declared a ceasefire. An offer of negotiations would have wrongfooted