Australia’s U-turn: The past and future of Australia’s COVID-19 response

Good luck or good management?

After the first wave of imported cases from returning travellers subsided in early 2020, many decision makers responded rapidly and aggressively to any outbreaks stemming from imported cases. Most states and terri-tories endured such “snap lockdowns”, which could be triggered by the tiniest case numbers. For example, southern Tasmania’s October 2021 lockdown was triggered in response to a quarantine breach, despite no local cases ever identified.

This aggressive approach was led by state premiers and health departments, but was not universally supported. First convened in March 2020, Australia’s National Cabinet brought together the key decision makers for the Covid response in a spirit of cooperation, and had the potential to form the basis for a coherent national strategy. However, as the challenges of pursuing Covid-zero became increasingly apparent over the coming months, disagreements emerged.

Despite these differences, most states continued to respond aggressively to any local transmission until the emergence of the highly transmissible Delta variant from mid-2021. With little or no vaccination protection through this period, this aggressive response typically relied on the crude tool of population-wide lockdown.

Southern Tasmania’s October 2021 lockdown was triggered in response to a quarantine breach, despite no local cases ever identified

It seems clear that these lockdowns contributed substantially to reversing the trajectory of the epidemic and re-establishing elimination. Covid is a directly transmitted infection, and so keeping most of the population at home can be expected to have an important effect, which has been quantified