US-Philippines relations: Marcos Jnr weaves new diplomacy that could unravel tapestry of romance with China

Pictures of the two presidents' first meeting in New York on September 22 said it all: Ferdinand Marcos Jnr and Joe Biden sat side by side, laughing like old friends.

This was a sign, observers said, of a new pattern of diplomacy being stitched together by the new Philippine president - one that could unravel his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte's tapestry of romance with China.

Biden during the meeting said the relationship between the United States and the Philippines "has very deep roots", with the US president adding "it's a critical, critical relationship from our perspective" and that he hoped "we can do a lot together".

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Marcos Jnr repaid the favour, saying Washington's role in ensuring peace in the region was "much appreciated", especially by the Philippines.

"We are your partners. We are your allies. We are your friends," he assured Biden.

"Thank you. It's mutual," Biden replied.

For Ian Storey, a Southeast Asian security specialist, the Philippine president's week-long visit to the US ahead of China, capped by his meeting with Biden and a speech before the United Nations General Assembly stressing a rules-based approach to maritime conflict, "is sending a crystal clear signal that he believes the Philippines' single most important relationship is with the US".

This was in sharp contrast to Duterte, who announced "my separation from the United States" both in military and economic terms, plunging bilateral ties to a new low. Duterte embroidered this decision with a litany of personal hurts he had suffered at the hands of "discourteous" American officials.

"In clear contrast to Duterte, [Marcos Jnr] has unambiguously stated he values the country's alliance with America and that he wants to strengthen it," said Storey, a senior fellow with the Singapore-based ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.

Collin Koh, a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies' Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies in Singapore, shared the same assessment.

While Marcos Jnr was continuing Duterte's "independent" foreign policy, he was also aiming to "rebalance" Philippine ties with China and the US by seeking to reinvigorate the alliance with Washington, Koh told This Week in Asia.

"In that equation, it'll appear that the US has restored its pole position," he said, adding: "It's clear that China is the elephant in the room as far as security is concerned that influences [his] approach to the US." Beijing must be closely watching developments and "hoping [Marcos Jnr] won't pursue reinvigorated ties with the US at the expense of Philippine-China ties," Koh said.

Renato Cruz De Castro, an international-relations professor at De La Salle University in Manila, said Marcos Jnr was "rebalancing" and "recalibrating" Duterte's foreign policy of being "friends to everyone, enemy to none".

"He will not touch what Duterte had already done in terms of enhancing economic relations with China, but at the same time he is boosting our alliance with the US. Duterte was one-sided only - he was distancing the Philippines away from the US initially."

Upon assuming office in July, Marcos Jnr signalled his administration would reopen negotiations with China on railway projects and a proposed oil and gas exploration deal in the South China Sea . Duterte scuttled these in the final hours of his presidency, disappointed with how little of the promised US$10 billion worth of investments and loans had actually come from China.

Marcos Jnr's meeting with Biden and speech at the UN sent China the message that it "cannot simply take us for granted", De Castro said. The Philippines was "like a girlfriend" that Beijing pursues "to wean us away" from the US, he said, adding that "if China succeeds, then our value to China actually decreases".

"Our value to the US is our strategic location," De Castro said of US-Philippines ties. "We are the closest country to Taiwan and in case of a major confrontation, we will provide the forward bases for American forces since Okinawa and Guam are farther away."

The Marcos family's ties with the US go way back, with the president's father Ferdinand Marcos Snr known as an "Amboy [America's Boy] to the end", according to historian Jose Antonio Custodio. During a series of demonstrations in 1986, the Marcoses left the Philippines and headed to Hawaii with the help of then-US President Ronald Reagan.

A later dispute over fees for hosting US military facilities hurt bilateral ties, with the Philippines Senate in 1991 rejecting the renewal of the Military Bases Agreement and US troops withdrawing from the country a year afterwards. Relations were slowly repaired over the following two decades before suddenly worsening under Duterte.

Custodio said Marcos Jnr, hemmed in by a maritime conflict and a rising China, was "in search of a strategy" to deal with increasing Chinese influence in the Philippines made possible by Duterte's policy of appeasing China.

While he described Marcos Jnr as "practically pro-US [and] saying things that are music to the ears of the Americans", Custodio said observers were unsure whether he would "compartmentalise" engagement with both powers - "reserving security and defence with America and everything else with China".

Would Marcos Jnr, for instance, agree to conduct joint patrols in the South China Sea with the US but, at the same time, negotiate a joint oil and gas development deal with China? Custodio said if such a deal was "not done properly, it will be to China's benefit since it would legitimise its presence" in the Philippines' exclusive economic zone, much of which is also claimed by Beijing.

Chester Cabalza, president and founder of the Manila-based International Development and Security Cooperation think tank, agreed that Marcos Jnr leaned towards Western values. Still, a more complete pattern of the new president's core foreign policies would emerge after the latter's state visit to Beijing, which could take place as early as October, Cabalza said.

He also noted that the Biden-Marcos Jnr meeting was "coincidental" and not an official visit - Marcos Jnr had already accepted an invitation to Beijing, confirmed as early as July 8, but has yet to announce a state visit to the White House.

"For China, the gesture of Marcos' [acceptance of an] official visit to Beijing over Washington is a strong indication that the Philippine leader has not left their side," Cabalza said.

It was also "not at all" surprising that Marcos Jnr had met Biden, Cabalza said, adding that the meeting had a tinge of "sweet revenge for the Marcos family after they returned to power by means of the democratic system".

Despite the feel-good nature of the meeting with Biden, Marcos Jnr's motives for going to the US were primarily self-serving, according to Ruben Carranza, a Filipino-American lawyer with the International Center for Transitional Justice, a New York NGO that helps countries recover from repressive regimes.

Carranza said he believes selfish family interest holds Marcos' diplomacy together and he was in reality "abusing foreign policy to serve Marcos family interests" over a refusal to pay a "human rights debt".

The Philippine president has yet to settle a longstanding US$353 million court order issued in the US in connection with a human rights class action suit against his late dictator-father Marcos Snr.

Ahead of Marcos Jnr's trip to New York, US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman met him in Manila, saying he would not be detained over the matter should he set foot in the US as he would have diplomatic immunity as head of state.

Carranza said Marcos Jnr "wanted that immunity so badly ... because it was the only way he could literally go up on the UN stage - which he assumed would cloak him with legitimacy despite his name ... they refuse to pay their human rights debt".

Marcos Jnr's speech at the UN General Assembly showed he preferred to move forward and not dwell on the past, said Storey of the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.

"As Marcos pointed out in his speech, in an era of global disorder and escalating geopolitical rivalry among the major powers, the Philippines values America's stabilising role in the Indo-Pacific. The problems the Philippines faces are in the here and now, not the 1980s," Storey said.

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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