China risks being 'isolated' from rest of the world, says India's Gautam Adani at Forbes Singapore Conference

China could become increasingly isolated from the rest of the world and its burgeoning housing and credit risks are similar to those faced by Japan during its so-called "lost decade" of stagflation in the 1990s, according to Indian billionaire Gautam Adani.

In remarks at a conference in Singapore, Adani - briefly the world's second-richest person - said China's "increasing nationalism, supply chain risk mitigation and technology restrictions" would likely affect its connectivity with other economies.

China's Belt and Road Initiative, which was supposed to be a demonstration of its global ambitions, has also faced resistance, adding to Beijing's challenges, he said. "I anticipate that China - that was seen as the foremost champion of globalisation - will feel increasingly isolated."

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Adani, who heads the Adani Group, India's largest integrated infrastructure group, and whose wealth this month briefly surpassed Jeff Bezos, was speaking at the 20th edition of the Forbes Global CEO Conference in Singapore.

Despite his frank comments on China's sluggish economy, the Indian tycoon said he still believed that global economies would in general readjust and bounce back over time.

During his 30-minute keynote address, Adani, who has an estimated net worth of US$142 billion, also painted an optimistic picture of India amid challenges facing the world, including implications arising from the Ukraine war, climate change and soaring inflation.

These, he said, resulted in a "massive realignment" of ecosystems. "What I see ahead are the new principles of global engagement based on greater self-reliance, lowered supply chain risks, and stronger nationalism."

But the global turbulence, he suggested, has also accelerated opportunities for India, the fifth-largest economy in the world. "It has made India one of the few relatively bright spots from a political, geostrategic and market perspective," he added.

India, he said, was on its path to become the world's third-largest economy by 2030.

In his vision for India in the next 25 years, its literacy rate would be 100 per cent. It would also be poverty free before 2050. "We will be a country with a median age of just 38 years even in 2050 - and a country with the largest consuming middle class the world will ever see," he said.

"We will be the country that will go from a US$3 trillion economy to a US$30 trillion economy, a country with a stock market capitalisation of US$45 trillion, and a country that will be supremely confident of its position in the world."

Adani pointed out that India had taken almost 58 years to reach the US$1-trillion GDP mark but took only 12 years, then just five years to surpass US$2 trillion and US$3 trillion, respectively. He expected the rate to further accelerate as the digital revolution kicked in and transformed activities at a national scale.

He was also confident that the pace of unicorn creation - a private start-up valued at more than US$1 billion - would accelerate, and that the country was on the cusp of creating "several thousands" of entrepreneurs.

Yet while India's growth has been largely buoyed by domestic investments, Adani stressed the importance for foreign backing. He cited how India recorded its highest annual foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow of US$85 billion last year, a sign of increasing global confidence in the Asian country.

He projected the flow of foreign investments into India to reach US$500 billion over the next 15 years. That would make India the world's fastest growing destination for FDI.

"The point I would like to make is that India is full of incredible opportunities. The real India growth story is just starting," he said.

"This is the best window for companies to embrace India's economic resurgence and the incredible multi-decade tailwind the world's largest and most youthful democracy offers. India's next three decades will be the most defining years for the impact it will have on the world."

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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