US Vice-President Kamala Harris set to discuss countering China, North Korea in Seoul, analysts say

US Vice-President Kamala Harris will call for South Korea's cooperation in containing an assertive China even as Seoul seeks to counter the growing threats from North Korea, analysts said Tuesday.

Harris is set to arrive in Seoul on Thursday as part of an Asia trip that included her attendance at the funeral of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Tuesday in Tokyo.

A senior US official said last week that Harris would meet South Korea's President Yoon Suk-yeol, "underscore the strength" of the US-South Korean alliance and discuss the threat posed by the North and "the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait".

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Their agenda also includes "our growing economic and technology partnership, and a range of regional and global issues", the official said.

Harris will also visit the demilitarised zone (DMZ) separating the two Koreas, a "symbolic" move that attests to the US defence commitment to South Korea amid mounting nuclear threats from Pyongyang, South Korean Prime Minister Han Duck-soo said on Tuesday after meeting Harris at Abe's funeral.

"Her messages will boil down as follows: Seoul's cooperation in handling China, US commitment to South Korea in the face of growing threats from North Korea and warnings against the North conducting its seventh nuclear test," said Park Won-gon, a political-science professor at Seoul's Ewha Womans University.

Harris is likely to reiterate Washington's stance on a free and open Indo-Pacific region, peace and stability in the South China Sea including Taiwan, law-based international order, stable supply chains and cooperation with South Korea in hi-tech fields including semiconductors, he said.

"In effect, these themes are all aimed at China," Park said.

South Korea, in turn, wants to focus on the extended US nuclear deterrence against the North and its concerns over potential damage to its carmakers caused by the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) that offers a tax credit of up to US$7,500 to each buyer of a new electric vehicle (EV) assembled in North America.

Park also noted Harris' visit to his country follows China's top legislator Li Zhanshu's trip to Seoul last week, during which he called for more cooperation with South Korea on cutting-edge technologies and supply chain issues.

Li also met President Yoon, who is seeking to maintain economic ties with Beijing while strengthening his nation's alliance with the US.

Harris' Seoul sojourn comes at a time when tensions are mounting on the Korean peninsula and shortly after Monday's launch of the first US-South Korea naval exercise in five years.

The North fired a ballistic missile on Sunday as an apparent protest against the four-day exercise on South Korea's east coast involving a strike group led by the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier.

The North has fired more than 30 ballistic missiles this year, according to US officials.

South Korean and US authorities have said Pyongyang appears to have finished all preparations for its seventh nuclear test.

"We have warned repeatedly that North Korea could well conduct another nuclear test, its seventh nuclear test with no warning," state department spokesperson Ned Price said on Monday.

Analysts said the North is likely to hold back from such a test for a while as China's ruling Communist Party will open its 20th five-yearly national congress on October 16, during which President Xi Jinping is widely expected to secure a historic third leadership term.

"Harris' visit won't affect the North's schedule to develop its nuclear weapons. Instead, the North will continue with low-level provocative acts such as missile tests," said Yang Moo-jin, a political-science professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul.

"North Korea desperately needs China's assistance to ease food shortages and deficiencies in other daily necessities. Therefore, the North is unlikely to defy China's call for restraint and push through with such a nuclear test before the end of the Chinese party Congress."

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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