Bolsonaro Has Been Watching Trump
As millions of Brazilians watched in disbelief the live images of the U.S. Capitol insurrection on Jan. 6, 2021, many commentators in the United States and Brazil were quick to agree that then-U.S. President Donald Trump had overplayed his hand. They believed the attack—which failed to accomplish its objective of obstructing a democratic transition of power—would damage the outgoing president’s political fortunes and complicate the U.S. Republican Party’s future.
A year and a half later, however, the way Brazilians interpret that day and its meaning has changed as the Republican Party—which failed to condemn Trump and now propagates an increasingly revisionist narrative about the Jan. 6 events—looks set to take back control of the U.S. Congress in November’s midterm elections. Guga Chacra, an influential Brazilian political commentator, flatly stated in an analysis this January that “we were wrong” to assume Trump would be ostracized in the attacks’ aftermath, pointing out that “the Capitol invasion didn’t debilitate Trump.” This shift in perspective among Brazilians is buttressed by the real possibility of Trump returning to the White House in 2025.
Today, Trump’s decision to incite a violent mob to
