Australia's new PM Albanese may mean a new chapter with Indonesia, Malaysia

Anthony Albanese's victory in Australia's federal election may lead to stronger links with Jakarta and Kuala Lumpur, analysts say, although they cautioned that there were major challenges facing the new prime minister.

He remarked not long before the election that it was important to grow ties with Indonesia, Southeast Asia's biggest economy, which he dubbed a "future superpower".

Albanese, whose victory on Saturday ended a decade in power for his country's conservative parties, has also previously been quoted as saying he hopes to strengthen Australia's bilateral relationship with Indonesia.

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The Australian Labor Party leader has said his first international trip as prime minister after Tuesday's Quad meeting in Tokyo would be to Jakarta.

Albanese has also said he visited Indonesia "more than any other country" while a government minister, while his first overseas trip after becoming opposition leader in 2019 was to Indonesia.

"Indonesia will grow to be an economy that's substantial in the world," Albanese said last week, before winning the election. "We live in a region whereby in the future, we will have China, India, and Indonesia as giants. We need to strengthen that economic partnership."

On Monday Indonesian president Joko Widodo congratulated Albanese on his win and said he was looking forward to "advancing our Comprehensive Strategic Partnership" including the IA-CEPA - the Indonesia-Australia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, which began in 2020.

While Albanese's previous rhetoric may have suggested that strengthening bilateral ties with Indonesia was a key foreign policy aim, analysts said increasing tension between the United States and China might affect that plan.

Under former prime minister Scott Morrison's government "there were a couple of big agreements such as the signing of the IA-CEPA", said Dr Rebecca Strating, associate professor of politics and international relations at Australia's La Trobe University. But she said Indonesia had not featured nearly as much in Australian foreign policy debates and discussions in recent years.

"The focus has largely been on the rise of China and initiatives such as Quad and Aukus that focus on traditional allies, like the US and UK, and Indo-Pacific partners that are similarly concerned about a rising China, such as Japan and India."

While Canberra has been doubling down on its alignment with Washington in relation to US-China competition in the Indo-Pacific, Jakarta's approach is to try to strengthen ties with both countries.

The US is Indonesia's biggest defence partner, while China is its top trade partner and a key foreign investor.

These different stances could be "a big strategic test" for Indonesia and Australia's otherwise strong relationship, according to Evan Laksmana, a senior research fellow at the Centre for Asia and Globalisation at the National University of Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy.

"The issue isn't so much whether the bilateral relationship will be prioritised. The issue is whether US-China competition will, from time to time, be more of a priority compared to the relationship with Indonesia. This is the balance Australia hasn't really quite figured out," he said.

From Jakarta's viewpoint, it would be "ideal" if Australia could "facilitate a de-escalation" in US-China competition, Laksmana said, adding that it was vital "to manage strategic polarisation in the region that's being driven by this competition. Whether that will happen under a new Australian government remains to be seen".

Strating said Albanese is likely to use a different rhetoric and tone to Morrison's 'tough-guy' approach in relation to China's rising influence, with Australia's new administration "more likely to recognise the importance of not trying to push regional states to take sides".

With Southeast Asia, including Indonesia, the Albanese administration is also likely to boost partnerships and cooperation in areas including maritime security, people-to-people relationships and climate change, Strating added.

Malaysia has also taken a keen interest in Australia's new administration, particularly in foreign minister Penny Wong. She was born in Sabah in Malaysian Borneo before emigrating Down Under as a child.

Former Malaysian policeman Sam Lim has been in the limelight too. He left the force for a better paid job as a dolphin trainer in Johor, before moving to Australia and becoming a police officer there.

The multilingual 60-year-old won a parliamentary seat in Perth, unseating the incumbent from what had been a safe Liberal constituency.

Describing his low pay in the Malaysian police force, Lim's story struck a chord with Malaysians pleased to see a former countryman achieve success, as well as with those saddened by Malaysia's 'brain drain'.

"Nice to see Malaysians making it in foreign countries because they wouldn't have the same opportunities if they had stayed here," said Twitter user Daniel Pereira.

Amrita Malhi from the Australian National University said such figures in the Labor ranks, including MPs who can converse in Indonesian, help to create a good impression of the new government.

"Putting these people and their skills forward gives many Australians a sense of relief that we are showing our diverse face to our region, instead of projecting ourselves as the "white tribe of Asia," as Indonesian journalist Ratih Hardjono put it in the 1990s," said Malhi.

Malaysian politician Tian Chua recalled working with Anthony Albanese in the University of Sydney's Students' Representative Council in the 1980s.

He called the new prime minister "very passionate, very committed" and "pragmatic" to the "plight of the working class".

"Australians are ready for change and want something better, and Anthony is the right person for it, because he puts the concerns of the marginalised as his top priority."

Chua added that exposure to international students and issues like apartheid in South Africa had given Albanese a broad and nuanced outlook and would help inform his foreign policy.

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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