What does Japan think about China and Taiwan? Abe may have the words for PM Kishida

Japan's prime ministers have mostly been content to move to the backbenches once their tenure is over, but Shinzo Abe breaks that mould.

He is arguably more outspoken on many issues today than when he was in power from 2012 to 2020, analysts said, and that creates significant complications for the far less hawkish Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

Nowhere is Abe more vocal than on matters of national security and the purported threat posed to the Indo-Pacific region by China's rising assertiveness.

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Late last year, for example, Abe used two public speaking events to accuse Beijing of "provoking, often bullying" neighbouring countries, a reference to Chinese threats aimed at Taiwan, and also warned that "adventurism" in military affairs "could be suicidal".

Ignoring resistance from China on his original comments, Abe has more recently used the Ukraine war to call for a stiffer international position on self-ruled Taiwan, which Beijing regards as a renegade province.

In an opinion article published on April 12 on the Project Syndicate website, Abe pointed to parallels between the conflict and Chinese pressure on Taiwan. He argued that the United States should change its traditional policy of "strategic ambiguity" to a clear position on defending Taiwan.

"The times have changed," Abe said in the article, which was picked up by media outlets in the US, Europe and Asia. "The US policy of ambiguity towards Taiwan is now fostering instability in the Indo-Pacific region."

While the Kishida administration has not commented on Abe's remarks, analysts have weighed in on the motivation and intent driving the former leader.

One school of thought suggests that Abe, as well as expressing beliefs that he would never have been able to say as prime minister, is now speaking out with the support of Kishida. Some observers believe Kishida may have quietly adopted a more hawkish stance now he is in power but, similarly, is unable to publicise these views as leader of Japan.

An alternative view is that Abe is exerting his continued influence over the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Kishida, in effect strong-arming the incumbent leader into adopting policies that are more aligned with his own policy priorities.

Abe is seen as having the ability to do this because of his influence over the most powerful faction in the LDP, and his role in Kishida's ascension as prime minister.

"When he stepped down as prime minister, Abe suddenly found that he had a free hand to say what he was previously not able to, and take a far more proactive position on issues that he believed in," said Go Ito, a professor of international relations at Tokyo's Meiji University.

"It is not clear what is going on behind closed doors, but at the moment, Abe's comments do not appear to have brought him into conflict with Kishida, even though expressing a very hawkish position on an issue like Taiwan will inevitably cause problems for the administration," he said.

A sign that Kishida has aligned some of his security policies more closely with Abe would include the support for Japan to develop the ability to attack an enemy base, if it determined an assault on Tokyo's interests was imminent, along with a revised interpretation of domestic law that would permit such an attack.

Similarly, Kishida has pushed forward with plans to develop and deploy unstaffed aerial vehicles, in spite of unease in some quarters that such platforms have an offensive capability, which would run counter to the provisions of the constitution.

"I would say the two men are very closely aligned at this stage, and Abe is saying things that Kishida might be thinking but cannot say," Ito said.

Any hardening of attitudes towards China would run counter to the traditional position of the Kochikai faction, which Kishida heads. Historically a moderate grouping within the LDP, it has sought engagement and even cooperation with Beijing in the past, Ito pointed out.

Abe's Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyukai faction, on the other hand, has been more nationalist and hostile towards China, with Ito suggesting that Kishida's aligning of his foreign and security policy with Abe would likely "be a test in the coming months".

"It is clear that Taiwan is going to become a bigger and more critical issue in the Japan-China relationship and the broader geopolitical situation in the region," he said.

Ben Ascione, an assistant professor of international relations at Tokyo's Waseda University, says that Abe's new-found outspokenness "comes as little surprise".

"Right-wing factions now dominate the LDP, something that happened under Abe, and while Kishida may be prime minister, he is only there through cooperation with and reliance on Abe," he said. "Depending on how far Abe is willing to push the envelope with these sorts of comments, he could cause problems for Kishida if he goes too far."

Things would particularly come to a head if Abe began to advocate a shift away from the one-China policy, Ascione said.

He suggested Abe's visit to the Yasukuni Shrine, where the souls of Japan's war dead are revered, in part served as a message to Kishida. The shrine is deeply controversial in many Asian nations as it is the last resting place of the souls of 12 Class A war criminals.

"I see that as Abe's way of reminding Kishida that he is only there thanks to Abe's help, and that the LDP is really still more Abe's party than Kishida's," he said.

Abe remains committed to seeing his own "ideological project" - of escaping the post-war regime imposed on a defeated Japan by the Allies in 1945 - coming to fruition, even if he is working towards that end as an elder statesman rather than prime minister, Ascione added.

And if he does not get his way on that goal, political analysts have suggested, there is a good possibility Abe might once again decide to run to lead the LDP and seek a third term as prime minister. Given the backing he still has in Japan's political, industrial, economic and social worlds, he is likely to emerge victorious.

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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