The Trump Effect
AT A RECENT FOCUS GROUP OF REPUBLICAN VOTERS from swing states, the only surprise came about 80 minutes into the two-hour Zoom session, when participants were questioned about the power of Donald J. Trump’s primary endorsements. Until then, the group had shown nothing but enduring loyalty and admiration for the former president. They echoed his views on immigration and critical race theory, questioned the integrity of the 2020 election and wished he were still president. Yet when asked how much Trump’s much-heralded and intensely coveted endorsements would influence their vote in upcoming GOP primaries, they all hedged.
“If I was on the fence, that might be the final factor,” a woman from North Carolina said. “But if I truly believed in the opposing candidate, it’s not going to make me vote any differently.” As long as the person she favors advocates strong America First and Make America Great Again policies, the voter said, she doesn’t need to follow Trump’s lead to feel she is supporting his creed.
That sentiment is playing out across the country, as primary season gets under way and voters head to the polls to pick slates for the first federal elections since Trump left the White House—some 29 states will vote in May and June, with most of the rest to follow in August and September. The spotlight lately has been on Trump’s endorsements in these contests, whether his anointed candidates will win or lose, and what that will say about his power as kingmaker in the Republican party. But that hyper focus overshadows another critical development: In one important respect at least, Trump has already won. Trumpism has triumphed as such a core GOP identity that most of the party’s candidates this election season, even those who are not officially endorsed by the former president, call themselves “Trump Republicans” and espouse his MAGA themes.
“With the Republican contests, the big takeaway is how Trumpy the entire field is and how many people are running explicitly on Stop the Steal platforms that have nothing to do with policy,” says Sarah Longwell, a GOP strategist whose political consultancy ran the focus group described and dozens of others like it. “They’re running against the media, they’re running against vaccine mandates, they are running against ‘woke’ and socialists.”
In contest after contest, state after state—including upcoming May primaries in Ohio, West Virginia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Georgia—the fields in key races are crowded with not just one or two but several MAGA options. And the lone non-MAGA candidate, if there is one, is typically trailing substantially in the polls. That virtually guarantees a majority of Trumpists on the Republican ballot in November.
