Singapore PM's talks with Biden show US won't waver from Indo-Pacific focus to counter China amid Russia-Ukraine conflict: analysts

Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong's series of high-profile meetings during a week-long visit to the US shows Washington's intention to continue with its focus on the Indo-Pacific even as it is preoccupied with developments in Europe, analysts said.

It also cast the spotlight on the strength of US-Singapore ties, with Lee travelling to Washington during a time originally meant for a US-Asean special summit. The US scheduled it for March 28 and 29 but the meeting was postponed after several Southeast Asian leaders were unable to travel on those dates, according to media reports.

Chong Ja Ian, an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore, said Lee's trip suggested "both the Biden and Lee administrations see their bilateral relationship as important, perhaps more so than other Asean member states".

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"It also suggests the emphasis that the Biden administration places on Southeast Asia," he said.

He pointed out that Lee's trip to the US coincided with the visits of four Asean foreign ministers to China. Beijing announced on Monday that the top diplomats of Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines and Myanmar would be in China on separate trips from Thursday to Sunday, demonstrating "close and friendly relations" between China and the region.

Prashanth Parameswaran, a fellow with the Wilson Center's Asia programme, said the visit gave both leaders an opportunity to develop their personal relationship. It also showed Washington's commitment to Southeast Asia although it should not be seen as a substitute for a US-Asean summit.

The trip reinforced the value of the US-Singapore relationship in a broader regional and international context, given Singapore's leadership in economic areas and its considerably strong stance against Russia, he said.

Singapore and the US cooperate in numerous areas including trade, defence and security, with the island republic hosting a logistics facility for the US navy and serving as a hub for the rotational deployment of other American military assets in Asia.

While most Asean countries joined a United Nations resolution condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Singapore is the only member of the bloc to impose sanctions against Moscow so far, a point highlighted by US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin who met with Lee on Monday. Lee also met with US Vice-President Kamala Harris and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

Biden on Tuesday described US-Singapore ties as "close and as strong as it's ever been" and said the island republic - home to 5.45 million people - was "punching way above its weight." Both countries were committed to freedom of navigation and the unimpeded flow of maritime commerce in the South China Sea, he said.

Lee, reiterating Singapore's consistent calls for the US to boost its economic engagement with Asia, said he had discussed "the importance of the US growing both its strategic and economic stakes in the Asia-Pacific" with Biden.

Referring to America's proposed Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), Washington's signature trade policy priority for Asia, Lee said the IPEF would strengthen America's engagement in the evolving regional economic architecture.

At a dialogue hosted by the non-partisan think-tank Council on Foreign Relations on Wednesday, Lee said Asian countries understood and accepted that America had "worldwide preoccupations". But the region was concerned about whether the US, in managing its ties with China, would have the "bandwidth and appetite and possibility to develop relations with Southeast Asia and other countries".

Lee's trip comes after several high-ranking US officials, including Harris, Austin and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, visited Singapore last year amid a flurry of US diplomacy across Asia.

The officials pledged to lay the groundwork for a new Indo-Pacific economic framework aimed at securing supply chains and promised support for the region's post-pandemic recovery, among other things. Analysts said the moves were Washington's way of strengthening links with the region while countering China's growing economic influence.

Brian Harding, senior Southeast Asia expert at the United States Institute of Peace said Singapore's efforts to isolate Russia were the latest example of it setting itself apart as Washington's most important Southeast Asian partner.

While not a formal treaty ally, Harding said Singapore has, for decades, "been unapologetic" in stating that a robust US presence in Asia is essential for regional stability.

"[That is] something that sets it apart even from the US two treaty allies in Southeast Asia," Harding said, referring to the Philippines and Thailand, adding that since Washington departed from Clark Air Base in the Philippines in 1992, Singapore has provided the US with access to military facilities and an important security presence in the region.

Jacob Stokes, an Indo-Pacific Security Programme fellow at the Washington-based Centre for a New American Security think tank said Singapore "is a key node in its own right given its strategic geography, and it is also a bellwether state for Southeast Asia writ large."

Stokes said the administration had made a special effort to reach out to countries that are eager to deepen ties. "It is more effective to enhance friendships with countries that want to work together rather than expending the same resources trying to convince ambivalent states to collaborate," Stokes added.

Speaking in his personal capacity, Paul J. Smith, a professor at the US Naval War College, said the real game-changer in Singapore-US relations was Singapore's recent decision to purchase F-35 fighter jets.

Singapore also negotiated several agreements to establish F-35 and F-16 training centres in America, including a recent decision to consolidate training in Arkansas, Smith noted.

Smith said the F-35 decision by Singapore, and America's willingness to approve it, means defence ties will only become stronger between the countries.

"I suspect that the F-35 issue, and associated training, was a key reason prompting Prime Minister Lee's visit, which is why a simple Zoom call would not have sufficed," said Smith.

On February 14, Singapore's Chief of Air Force, Major-General Kelvin Khong said that the F-16's replacement, the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter is projected to be delivered around 2026.

Khong added that Singapore will continue to operate the F-16 and their upgraded versions for at least another decade and is working towards replacing them with the F-35s.

Smith added that from a geopolitical perspective, Singapore, like other smaller countries, has been affected psychologically by the Russian invasion which showed international rules and norms do not necessarily protect countries from the loss of sovereignty.

"Unless such countries have significant military capabilities or powerful friends, preferably both," Smith said, adding that the US needs Singapore for the "Indo" portion of its "Indo-Pacific" strategy to work.

"Singapore plays a critical role for America's ability to station equipment in the region and conduct joint exercises, among other activities. I expect this trend to continue," Smith noted.

Stokes also referred to the ambiguity surrounding Lee's succession plan. In power since 2004, Lee was initially slated to hand power to his current deputy prime minister Heng Swee Keat - but last year, the current No 2 leader took himself out of the running.

Currently the finance minister Lawrence Wong, education minister Chan Chun Sing and health minister Ong Ye Kung are seen as the most likely successors. A decision on who will succeed Lee is expected later this year.

Stokes said whether the city state can manage a stable, orderly transition would determine Singapore's future and strategic orientation. "[The transition will also be] closely watched for implications about the fate of democratic transitions, or lack thereof, in Southeast Asia," Stokes added.

After previous periods of democratic advances in Southeast Asia, the region has witnessed regressions, ranging from the overthrow of the democratically-elected government in Myanmar last February to rising authoritarianism in Thailand.

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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