What a Decade-Old Conflict Tells Us About Putin

A plethora of emotional and political explanations have been offered for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, and a variety of events have been identified as turning points leading to this moment: There is his current emotional state, his isolation since the onset of the pandemic, or his sense of humiliation after the fall of the Soviet Union. Experts note the perceived threat that a democracy next door poses to his hold on Russia, as well as a 2007 speech in which he attacked the post–Cold War order. The amalgam provides a rounded view of a man taking the world into what experts such as Fiona Hill have described as World War III.

But one event is missing from these analyses, an episode that combines political and emotional aspects, and helped crystallize Putin’s distrust of the West, his own sense of