Slava Ukraini! Dispatches from Kyiv: Part Three
Millions staff writer Il’ja Rakos and his family live in Kyiv, Ukraine. What follows are selections from his correspondence with his friend Mark Slouka from before and during the Russian invasion, reprinted with permission.
From: Mark Slouka
Dec 13, 2021, 7:05 PM
Hey Il’ja:
We’ve been wondering how you guys are bearing up in regard to this situation with the Russians. Do you have contingency plans? I’m guessing this is a bargaining move on Putin‘s part, essentially a play to squeeze certain guarantees from the EU vis a vis Ukraine, but still . . . On this end, nothing new to report: a gray, drizzly December, cases through the roof.
When’s your book thing coming out with The Millions?
S pozdravem s Prahi,
From: Iľja Rákoš
Dec 13, 2021, 9:06 PM
Salutations from the east!
Russians, goddamn Russians. A constant news item for the last 7 years, so, in that regard nothing new. What is new is that, in contrast to seven years ago, they’ve now moved major hardware and field hospitals into Donbas–the territories in the east where the insurrectionists are in charge.
Business as usual, it would seem. Berlin ’53, Budapest ’56, CZ in ’68, Georgia ’89, Latvia & Lithuania ’90, Georgia again ’91, Azerbaijan ’91, Moldova ’92, Tajikistan ’92, Chechya ’93, Georgia ’08, Ukraine ’14, Crimean Ukraine ’14.
And that’s Moscow’s attitude toward its friends.
However, there’s one major difference that should prevent a repeat performance this time, and it’s a big thing: What the hell will they get with an invasion of Ukraine?
For one, the guerrilla resistance will be fierce. Ukrainians have had a slice of civil society and they aren’t looking to turn back the clock. And second, Donbas is an albatross that Russia, fiscally, can barely afford.
Ukraine is the same size as Texas. Donbas and Crimea are about the size of New Jersey and Massachusetts. What’s left over is still a sizable territory with a population of 40 million who have no interest in Soviet-style immiseration. That’s a pot they’d be hard pressed to keep from boiling over. Reasonable estimates say they’d have to put 450,000 troops on the territory just to hold everything up to the Dnieper.
Putin’s writing checks that I hope Biden is smart enough to know he can’t cash.
The fun part: our “activist” neighbor (and she really does know everybody) has already asked if I’d be ready to join the partisan effort if it came to that. Like the kids say, it just got real.
There’s good commentary on this on Russian DOZHD and EKHO MOSKVY. Your Czech will help with the Russian talkers. Some good, solid analysis there.
Putin’s bluff, risk/reward is way out of balance. His objective is just to keep the west engaged while he gets what he’s actually after: no hard promises on NATO for Ukraine, some sanctions lifted, no new sanctions, and Nordstream 2 online with no obstacles. If Biden cuts Russia off from SWIFT banking, makes hay with Beijing, and gets some petroleum concessions, Putin will be out of options.
He’s a one-trick pony, Putin is. It’s just that his one trick works every time. Never discount the grudge he carries–it’s real. But never overestimate his capacity to act on it.
I’ve got relatives
