Japan beats China as an investor in Asean but why does survey show trust in it is declining?

Japan might rank among the top holiday destinations for Southeast Asians, reflecting the good impression that most have of the country. But it's a different story when it comes to how much trust those in the region have towards Japan or how they view its political and economic influence, as the latest annual State of Southeast Asia Survey shows.

Released last week by Singapore think tank ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, the survey - which canvassed 1,677 respondents from a range of backgrounds including government and academia - found that 54.2 per cent said they had confidence in Japan to "do the right thing" in contributing to global peace, security, prosperity and governance.

This number "declined significantly" from last year's 68.2 per cent, the survey report said. A check of the findings from previous surveys since 2019 when the survey first began found this was the first time it fell to below 60 per cent.

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When it came to assessing influence in Southeast Asia, only 2.6 per cent of respondents in this year's survey picked Japan as the most influential economic power, down from 4.1 per cent last year.

In contrast, just over three-quarters of respondents picked China, even though Japan has invested more in the region, according to an Australian National University study last year which found that in 2018, Japan invested US$20.9 billion in Southeast Asia, more than twice China's US$9.9 billion.

So why has Japan seemingly lost ground? The survey offered only a few clues, when it drilled down into the perceptions of respondents. One-fifth of them said they had "no confidence" or "little confidence" that Japan would "do the right thing" to contribute to the global good. Of these 332 people, four in 10 said their lack of confidence stemmed from a belief that Japan did not have the capacity or political will for global leadership. Meanwhile, close to three in 10 said Japan was distracted by domestic affairs and relations with China, South Korea and Taiwan.

Asked for their views, experts suggested that Japan's domestic politics and Covid-19 management in the last two years contributed to a decline in trust.

Political scientist Chan Heng Chee, Singapore's former ambassador to the US, said Japan's initial handling of the pandemic in 2020 was seen as "bumbling".

"And also because it was not forthcoming in providing vaccines," Chan said, noting that while survey results had shown 57.8 per cent of people in Asean saw China as providing more vaccine support, only 4.1 per cent thought the same of Japan.

"In the past Japan had been at the forefront of giving economic and humanitarian assistance, so trust declines," Chan said, adding the pandemic's impact on health and the economy were the greatest challenges faced by Southeast Asian countries.

Kei Koga, an assistant professor at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, pointed to leadership turnover as a reason.

"[Ex-prime minister Shinzo] Abe took a strong leadership role in Asia" Koga said, adding that "such strong diplomatic leadership in Asia has been absent since the [Yoshihide] Suga administration".

Abe stepped down in August 2020 due to health reasons, and his long-time aide Suga who took over for him left after a year, handing over to current Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in October last year.

Sharon Seah, a senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute and lead author of the report said that since ex-prime minister Suga's visit to Vietnam and Indonesia in 2020, no Japanese leader has visited Southeast Asia.

"Perhaps it is time for Kishida to take a tour of the region once Japan lifts its border restrictions," Seah added.

The report also noted that while Japan's strategic engagement with Asean countries had not changed in the past year, face-to-face engagements between leaders were limited. In contrast, the report said China maintained high-level contact with the region, most notably the attendance of Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Asean-China special commemorative summit last November.

The survey found the largest swing came from Cambodian respondents, where only 32.1 per cent said they trusted Japan in this year's survey, compared to 84.6 per cent in 2021.

Trust was highest among Filipino respondents, followed by Vietnamese and those from Myanmar.

When asked which "third parties" Asean were to seek out to hedge against the uncertainties of the US-China strategic rivalry, the proportion of those who chose Japan as the preferred country also fell from 37.4 per cent in 2021 to 29.2 per cent this year.

This, according to Zha Daojiong, an international studies professor at China's Peking University, reflects Southeast Asian countries' concerns "about the level of alignment between Tokyo and Washington on geostrategic matters".

Over the past year, Japan has strengthened cooperation with the US both militarily with more joint drills and strategically through the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or the Quad which also includes India and Australia.

Huynh Tam Sang, a lecturer at Ho Chi Minh City University of Social Sciences and Humanities in Vietnam said that Tokyo's efforts in bolstering a coalition with the US and Australia has "weakened Tokyo's neutrality".

"[It has] made Japan less appealing for those seeking to hedge against the danger of the US-China strategic rivalry," Huynh said, adding that Kishida's policy on promoting engagement with Southeast Asian countries still remains unclear.

Before the pandemic, Japan pledged in 2019 to double development efforts with Asean countries through investments, loans and projects, and even strengthen defence cooperation through the Vientiane Vision 2.0, a defence initiative for Southeast Asian states.

"Seeking closer ties with the US and approving record defence spending amid China's expansion are notable instances. But [these] are not enough for Asean states to rely on Japan," Huynh added.

But Tomoo Kikuchi, an associate professor from Waseda University said he believed "some of the scores will improve again in the post-pandemic world."

"Japan will hopefully be able to provide solutions to many of the challenges that Asean faces such as climate-change related issues, supply chain resilience, regional infrastructure, and the digital economy," Kikuchi added.

Pointing out that Southeast Asia's declining confidence in Japan could undermine Tokyo's efforts in engaging with the region, Huynh said that the Kishida administration should foster greater people-to-people ties to "counterbalance China's growing assertiveness"

Rifki Dermawan, an international relations lecturer at Indonesia's Andalas University in West Sumatra said that unlike China which has been conducting vaccine diplomacy and the US which has dispatched senior administration officials to the region, few high-profile events were linked to Japan.

Citing US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's speech at the University of Indonesia and discussion with youth in December, Dermawan said these are "good strategies to engage with common people and gain trust from them."

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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