South Korea presidential race: who's running and where do they stand on China, the US, and North Korea?

The official 22-day campaign period begins on Tuesday to elect South Korea's 20th president on March 9. The results will be closely watched by numerous foreign countries due to the substantial foreign policy differences between the ruling liberal camp and the conservative opposition party.

Reflecting the country's fast-ageing population, voters in their 60s and older account for 29.5 per cent of its 44 million eligible voters, up from the 27.3 per cent share in the 2017 election.

At least 11 candidates have registered in the presidential race with the National Election Commission, a move that enabled them and their election workers to engage in full-fledged campaigning offline and online.

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Locked in a tight race are the leading contenders, Lee Jae-myung of the liberal Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) and Yoon Suk-yeol of the conservative People Power Party (PPP).

Lee, a 57-year-old human rights lawyer and former governor of the country's largest Gyeonggi province, is a rare rags-to-riches story whose childhood poverty forced him to toil at a factory where he had his left arm shattered under a machine.

He is a self-professed champion of the poor and underprivileged, espousing bold social welfare projects including free grants worth some one million won (US$837) per year for every young person. His eloquence and sharp tongue have earned him both fans and opponents who accuse him of populism.

Lee's arch-rival Yoon spent 27 years as a state prosecutor, playing key roles in throwing former conservative presidents Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye into jail.

Although appointed as the powerful prosecutor general in 2019 by the liberal president Moon Jae-in, the 61-year-old Yoon fell out of favour with Moon when Yoon ordered an investigation into Cho Kuk, Moon's potential successor who was spearheading efforts to cut the wings of the country's powerful state prosecutors.

After punishing two former presidents and standing up against the serving president, Yoon projects an image of a champion of justice and fairness among his supporters, but his inexperience in administration and his inability to speak without scripts are seen as weaknesses.

One potential wild card in the nip-and-tuck race is Ahn Cheol-soo, a medical doctor/IT expert-turned politician who is backed by voters who are disenchanted with the country's two main parties and their candidates.

Ahn last week suggested a run-off poll with Yoon to choose between the two for unifying the conservatives' candidacy. Yoon instead turned the proposal down, calling for Ahn's unilateral withdrawal from the race.

At least eight other candidates have entered the race, including Sim Sang-jung of the pro-labour Justice Party. Former economic minister Kim Dong-yeon and Heo Kyung-young, a mystic cult leader.

Major election issues include domestic problems such as soaring housing prices, unemployment, inequality and small businesses hit hard by the pandemic. Young voters have had a tendency to vote for liberals in the past, but housing problems and high unemployment rates caused many to tilt towards the conservative People Power Party.

Gender issues and anti-China sentiments sparked by an aggressive China and the pandemic also affected voters' sentiments, especially some young voters who regard the liberal government as too deferential toward Beijing.

Challenges from abroad also loom large, including nuclear-armed North Korea and Seoul's increasingly difficult balancing act in the face of the mounting rivalry between its traditional ally the United States and its largest trading partner China.

Pyongyang shows little interest in dialogue after a flurry of high-level diplomatic talks collapsed in 2018 and 2019. It has conducted a raft of missile tests this year and is now threatening to end its self-imposed moratorium on long-range missiles and nuclear testing.

Both conservative and liberal candidates support dialogue and economic cooperation with the North but they differ over conditions and sequence of such engagement.

Yoon is sticking to the conservatives' stance that economic exchanges with the North should come only after it is denuclearised first, a rigid condition that has made the North abandon diplomacy under the past Lee and Park administrations.

He also said he would scrap the 2018 inter-Korean agreement aimed to defuse cross-border military tension unless the North stops its aggressive attitude. He dismisses liberals' efforts to bring about an end-of-war declaration involving the two Koreas, China and the US as "appeasement that would only weaken Seoul's defence posture".

Yoon has suggested the redeployment of US tactical nuclear weapons in the South and even a "pre-emptive strike" in case North Korea's nuclear and missile attacks appear to be imminent. He has also called for the resumption of massive joint military exercises with the US, that were scaled back in 2018 as a part of Moon's engagement policy with North Korea.

During TV debates earlier this month, Lee who poses as a pragmatist, accused Yoon of seeking to "intensify confrontation rather than to avoid war and create peace". "It is important to win a war but it is more important to win without a war and the most important thing is to create [an] environment where there is no need to go to war," Lee said.

Lee supports the outgoing president's policy of engagement, vowing to step up Seoul's efforts to mediate between the US and North Korea and meet both President Biden and Kim Jong-un to resolve the crisis. He suggests simultaneous, reciprocal steps by the US that are to be spread out over different stages, under which sanctions are eased on the North on condition that it takes tangible steps toward denuclearisation during the first stage.

But such sanctions would be brought back immediately if it fails to abide by the deal under a "snapback" clause.

South Korea finds itself on the horns of dilemma as the US is stepping up efforts to contain an aggressive China. Seoul must rely on its ally for its defence against the North and consider potential economic retaliations by China, the country's largest trading partner, should it side with the US too closely.

Yoon wants to align South Korea's diplomacy more closely with the US, accusing Moon of damaging alliance with Washington by pursuing a "subservient pro-China, pro-North Korea diplomacy".

Citing the need to deter North Korean missile threats against the Seoul metropolitan area, Yoon has called for more deployment of the highly sophisticated US missile defence system known as Thaad, which China sees as threat to its own security.

Yoon also proposed that South Korea participate in the Five Eyes intelligence sharing grouping as well as working groups for the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue or Quad.

Lee said Thaad, which is intended to intercept middle and long range missiles, is unpractical to defend Seoul which lies only 24km from the nearest point from the border with the North, saying the South has technology and resources to build up its own missile defence.

Lee denies he is soft on North Korea, vowing to continue building up deterrence and to seek US technical cooperation for building nuclear-powered submarines.

Seoul suffered billions of dollars of economic damages when China retaliated against Seoul's 2016 decision to deploy Thaad. Lee backs President Moon's "three no policies" under which Seoul will not further deploy Thaad, won't join the US-led global missile defence system and won't participate in a military alliance involving the US and Japan.

During the first TV debate on February 3, Yoon said he would meet the US president first before holding summits with Japan, China and North Korea in that order, while Lee only said he would meet "the most necessary man at the most useful moment".

Yoon accused Moon's liberal government of "ruining" relations with Japan by pursuing ideologically biased policy toward Tokyo. He has called for strengthened military ties with Japan within the framework of a tripartite military alliance led by the US.

In an interview with the Joongang Ilbo daily last year, Lee said such a tripartite military alliance involving Japan could be "very dangerous" as long as Japan sticks to its claim over Dokdo and its "militaristic" tendency.

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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