GETTING TO $5 TRILLION
43.7 BILLION The volume of digital transactions in 2020-21, a surge of 88% from 23.26 billion in 2018-19
22 BILLION The number of UPI transactions in 2020-21, which has quadrupled over the last three years
IT TOOK THE Indian economy eight years to double to $2 trillion in 2014 and another seven to grow to just under $3 trillion currently. At that rate, the leap to a $5-trillion economy by 2024-25, as envisaged by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government—seems unfeasible, especially after the Covid-19 pandemic and its lingering aftereffects.
The pandemic delayed the timeline by about 3-4 years in an ‘optimistic’ scenario, estimates EY Chief Economist D.K. Srivastava, and until 2029-30 in the worst-case outcome. Irrespective, India will become the world’s third-largest economy by the end of the decade, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), a UK-based economic think-tank.
Indeed, the latest government estimate is for a 9.2 per cent expansion this fiscal year, recovering from a historic contraction last fiscal and setting India up to claim the mantle of the fastest-growing economy in 2021. But the growth has to accelerate for the GDP to climb from ₹222.9 lakh crore in FY22 (pegged in last year’s Budget) to $5 trillion, or ₹375 lakh crore
