Japan boosts coastguard fleet to counter increasing Chinese patrols near disputed Diaoyu Islands

Japan will add 10 new patrol vessels to its coastguard fleet in the coming years as it steps up efforts to counter increasing Chinese activity around the disputed Diaoyu Islands, a move that experts say could further raise tensions in the region.

The first of the additional coastguard ships - weighing 1,300 tonnes and with a crew of 30 - is due to be deployed within the next two years, with the rest being launched before the end of the decade. Japan's Coastguard is not a military organisation but, under the Police Official Duties Execution Act, its vessels are permitted to fire on foreign vessels to prevent a "heinous crime," including an attempt to land at the Senkakus, Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato said last year.

On Monday, Japan's coastguard reported that Chinese government ships entered its territorial waters around the disputed East China Sea islands on 34 occasions last year, up from 24 intrusions the previous year. The islands are claimed by Beijing, which refers to the uninhabited archipelago as the Diaoyus. However, they are administered by Japan, which refers to them as the Senkakus.

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Chinese ships were also identified operating in the contiguous zone, which extends 12 nautical miles beyond the 12 nautical mile limit of Japan's territorial waters around the islands, on 332 days last year, similar to the 333 days reported in 2020.

Japan's coastguard also claimed that Chinese government ships approached civilian Japanese vessels, primarily operated by fishermen from Okinawa prefecture, 18 times last year, up from just eight cases in waters close to the islands in 2020.

Tokyo remains concerned about a law allowing China's coastguard to use "all necessary means" to deter threats posed by foreign vessels in waters "under China's jurisdiction", for it could result in Chinese coastguard officers boarding Japanese fishing boats.

Under the current circumstances, Japan was left with two choices, said John Bradford, senior fellow specialising in regional maritime security at the Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.

"Japan can escalate in response or it can fold and surrender, both on the issue of its sovereign territory and in terms of permitting China to advance its military power closer to the Japanese mainland," he said.

While Tokyo's move to invest in new vessels was "significant", he said, it was unlikely to alter the situation in the area as China could simply respond by spending more of its own coastguard forces, entering waters claimed by Japan more frequently or chasing more Japanese fishermen.

With feelings running high over the question of sovereignty on both sides of the East China Sea, the problem was one of de-escalation, Bradford said.

"I do not expect either side to back down," he said.

"I think both sides are frustrated at not being able to break out of this cycle and may be looking for more options," Bradford said. "The Chinese, I believe, are becoming more sure of themselves and may feel that they can make a large-scale move that Japan may react to but will be afraid to escalate to a war, so Beijing may feel it may be OK to try something."

One potential flashpoint that could trigger a cycle of escalation might be an accidental collision or clash between vessels, analysts have suggested, although Bradford said such incidents had taken place in the past and the two sides, and Washington, had moved to de-escalate and defuse the situation.

Bradford, a former commander with the US Navy who once served as deputy director of the Seventh Fleet maritime headquarters in Japan, said there were two alternative scenarios that would be more unpredictable and harder to manage.

The first would see non-state actors, such as nationalist groups from Japan, mainland China or even Taiwan, which also claims sovereignty over the territory, landing a party on one of the islands to emphasise their claim. The other potential threat would be if a local actor, such as a regional government or organisation, acted in defiance of requests from another authority, such as a national government, and pushed ahead with a course of action that unintentionally escalated the situation.

There was a precedent for this scenario, he said, pointing to how the captain of the Chinese trawler Minjinyu 5179 was taken into custody in Okinawa in September 2010 after deliberately ramming a Japanese coastguard vessel that attempted to stop him operating in waters close to the islands. Captain Zhan Qixiong was detained for 10 days until Tokyo ordered his release, but not before demonstrations in Japan and protests in mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan.

But Liu Qingbin, an associate professor in the graduate school of urban innovation at Yokohama National University, said that during the Okinawa incident the Japanese coastguard "made the fishing boat crash into them" and had already broken a bilateral agreement on fishing.

"China is the only one that does not want to make this a problem and now Japan is building more ships, which will only make things worse," he said. "Japan wants to show its muscle, it is raising its defence spending from 1 per cent of GDP to 2 per cent and Tokyo wants to gain bargaining power over both China and the United States."

Liu also claimed that the Japanese fishing boats operating close to the islands were operated by right-wing Japanese groups who wanted to provoke China, which was why Chinese government vessels had attempted to approach them.

Late last month, Chinese Defence Minister General Wei Fenghe and his Japanese counterpart Nobuo Kishi agreed to launch a military hotline in 2022 to ease tensions. Kishi urged Beijing to exercise restraint and not unilaterally change the status quo while Wei vowed that China would protect its territorial sovereignty and interests at sea.

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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