Is Omicron Milder?

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When Omicron appeared, scientists had three big questions.

First, would Omicron be more transmissible than previous variants? Judging from the nearly vertical charts of case growth in South Africa, Europe, New York City, and just about every other place Omicron has made an unwelcome appearance, the answer is yes. This may be the most transmissible strain of the coronavirus that we’ve ever seen.

Second, would Omicron evade some immune defense from our vaccines and prior infections? Here the evidence is also overwhelming: Yes. The skyrocketing daily cases in largely vaccinated regions are persuasive enough. For even more glaring examples, look at the hundreds of breakthrough cases in the NFL, NHL, and NBA, leagues with vaccination rates greater than 90 percent. Despite having mandated vaccines, Cornell had to shut down its campus after nearly 1,000 students tested positive.

Third, would Omicron cause more severe disease? This has been the most difficult to answer, in part because it has