PROBABILITY IS A NUMBERS GAME
If you’re a gambler, you’ll know a bit about probability. Everything has a chance rating, somewhere between zero and one. The higher the number, the better the odds. And the more you know about your input variables, the closer you get to knowing the odds.
And that’s what business does. Essentially it’s all a big gamble. A romantic dance of risk and return, but the dice are doctored and the deck is stacked. In business we don’t like luck.
WE CAN’T BELIEVE OUR LUCK
An interestingness of humans is that we over-estimate our abilities and under-estimate our luck. It’s normal. If we felt like we got here at
