What Lies Ahead: An Economist’s Lens

Forecasts indicate that even if the economic recovery is uninterrupted, it won’t be until the end of 2021 before anything returns to pre-crisis activity. What are we in for in the coming months?

I would divide Canadians into two groups: People who have been able to continue to work from home and for the most part, have uninterrupted incomes; and people who have had their incomes interrupted or are required to go out and work in the community, and are therefore more exposed to the virus. For this latter group, there will be lots of challenges over the next two to three years.

The most optimistic estimate by the OECD is that it will be the end of 2021 or the beginning of 2022 before we get close to where we were in terms of economic activity. Due to the efficiency with which this virus spreads, as we begin to reopen, case numbers will inevitably start to increase. Governments everywhere will have to be very aggressive in moving quickly to reverse any emerging trends.

The other big issue is that a large percentage of the younger demographic really feels invincible and they are actually contracting the disease and spreading it to more vulnerable people in their circle. So what lies ahead are a lot of challenges, a lot of ups and downs, a lot of unemployment, and a lot of uncertainty.

As businesses reopen, Canada’s economy is actually projected