Get ready to leave the US stock party
“It’s not all doom and gloom. Emerging markets are trading at lower valuations”
The US stockmarket has entered a highly speculative phase. By most established investment metrics, the S&P 500 is close to an all-time peak. Yet valuation measures don’t predict how long irrational exuberance might last. The credit cycle, on the other hand, does provide useful information. In the US, credit indicators are flashing somewhere between amber and red.
The notion of the credit cycle goes back at least to the mid-19th century and Victorian banker Lord Overstone. Given
