CREAM OF THE CROP

From its beginning in 1981, Baseball America has made reporting on draft prospects a priority. That focus continues 40 years later.

Here, we present full scouting reports for the players you need to know for the first two rounds of the 2021 draft. Players’ ages are as of draft day. BA web subscribers can go even deeper with the BA500, where complete reports are available for the top 500 draft prospects. For the first time this year, BA Grades and scouting grades are available online for the top 200 prospects.

BA Grades attempt to gauge players’ realistic ceilings by expressing their projected future value on the 20-80 scouting scale, where 50 is average. You can get a sense of how this works in the player features in this issue, which begin on Page 12.

1. JORDAN LAWLAR, SS | DALLAS JESUIT HS

AGE: 19. B-T: R-R. HT: 6-2. WT: 185. COMMIT: VANDERBILT.

Whichever team drafts Lawlar will be selecting a prep shortstop with a long track record of success. He was the shortstop and three-hole hitter for Dallas Jesuit from his first game as a sophomore to the final game of his senior year. He left an inch taller (6-foot-2) and 25 pounds heavier (195 pounds) than when he arrived, but his performance was remarkably consistent. Lawlar hit over .400 all three varsity seasons and was one of the best hitters on the summer showcase circuit in both 2019 and 2020. Because he’s coming out of Texas two years after Bobby Witt Jr.—and like Witt he’s nearly 19 on draft day—Lawlar draws understandable comparisons. Witt had louder tools almost across the board, with the exception of hitting for average, but Lawlar has plenty of plus tools himself. He has future 60 speed (he’ll turn in 70 times now) to go with 60 hitting ability, a 60 glove and an above-average arm and future power. Lawlar has a high likelihood of staying at shortstop. Witt was drafted No. 2 overall in 2019 and is the only Texas prep shortstop to ever go in the top 10 picks. Lawlar should be the second. There were concerns when Lawlar showed more swing and miss early in the season, but he resolved that as the season wore on. He struck out in 20% of his plate appearances over the first 21 games of the season. In his final 15 games he struck out once in 55 plate appearances with no degradation in his power production. Lawlar’s swing is compact with above-average bat speed. Lawlar is a fast-twitch athlete. Projecting how his power develops separates those who see him as the best prospect in the draft class from those who see him as just a top-tier draft prospect. If his power catches up to his other tools in his 20s, Lawlar could be a regular all-star. If not, his hitting ability, speed and defense still would give him a path to being a big league regular with defensive value.

#1 JORDAN LAWLAR

2. MARCELO MAYER, SS | EASTLAKE HS, CHULA VISTA, CALIF.

AGE: 18. B-T: L-R. HT: 6-3. WT: 185. COMMIT: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

Mayer is the next big prospect to come out of a powerhouse Eastlake High program that produced Adrian Gonzalez, 2019 first-round pick Keoni Cavaco and 2020 second-rounder Casey Schmitt, by way of San Diego State. Mayer started getting attention from scouts at Eastlake as a freshman, when he showed a smooth lefthanded swing and advanced defensive actions up the middle. He capped his four-year varsity career by hitting .410 with 13 home runs in the regular season, while playing excellent high school competition in San Diego County’s top division. Mayer is arguably the top defensive shortstop in a class that is deep at the position. He glides around the infield with silky smooth actions and has the hands, footwork and arm strength to stick at shortstop. He slows the game down and has no problem throwing from multiple angles with an accurate arm. Though he is a below-average runner, he moves fluidly around the dirt and should be at least an above-average defender. The 6-foot-3, 185-pound Mayer also has upside offensively. He’s a plus hitter with excellent barrel control and extension in his swing and drives balls hard in the air from gap-to-gap. He can turn on good fastballs and drive them off the rightfield fence or let pitches on the outer half travel deep and line them hard up the middle or the opposite way. He has fringe-average power now, but could tap into above-average power in the future as he fills out his projectable frame. He controls the strike zone and has a calm, steady presence in the batter’s box. Mayer is committed to Southern California, but as a surefire top five pick, it’s unlikely he ever steps foot on campus. He has a chance to be drafted No. 1 overall and join Gonzalez, who was selected first overall in 2000, thus making Eastlake the only high school to ever have two players taken with the draft’s top pick.

3. JACK LEITER, RHP | VANDERBILT

AGE: 21. B-T: R-R. HT: 6-1. WT: 205. DRAFTED: YANKEES 2019 (20).

Leiter was a first-round talent out of high school and ranked as the No. 21 prospect in the 2019 class, but a high price tag and strong Vanderbilt commitment meant he got to campus in Nashville. Draft-eligible in his second year with the Commodores, Leiter—the son of longtime big league lefthander Al Leiter—dominated in his first full season of college. Leiter was known for his polish and pitchability out of high school, and scouts continue to praise his moxie on the mound. His deep pitch mix includes five offerings, if you count a two-seam and four-seam fastball. Leiter is a shorter righthander but has added strength to his frame since high school, particularly in his lower half. This spring, Leiter primarily worked with a fastball, curveball and slider combination. His fastball has been up to 98 mph, but averages 93-95, with excellent carry that generates plenty of whiffs in the zone and above it. Teams love the metrics on Leiter’s fastball, and the combination of his size, extension and carry on the pitch allow it to play up, even when he’s sitting in the 90-93 mph range. His curveball is his best secondary offering. It's an upper-70s, 12-to-6 downer that he lands consistently in the zone when he wants, but he can also bury for a putaway pitch. Leiter throws a slider in the low 80s that has less depth but might wind up being a better chase offering. He also infrequently throws a mid-80s changeup that scouts loved out of high school and could become an above-average secondary with more reps. Durability was the one concern scouts had with Leiter, and while he toed the mound most weeks during the season, he skipped one start to manage fatigue and at times was a bit homer-prone. While Leiter might not project as an ace, scouts see a pitcher who should fit in a No. 2 or No. 3 role and pitch in the big leagues for a long time.

#3 JACK LEITER

#5 KUMAR ROCKER

4. HENRY DAVIS, C | LOUISVILLE

AGE: 21. B-T: R-R. HT: 6-2. WT: 210. DRAFTED: NEVER.

Davis ranked as the No. 306 prospect in the 2018 class out of Fox Lane High in Bedford, N.Y., but at the time he was seen as a glove-first catcher with work to do offensively. His loudest tool was by far his arm, with some scouts grading it as a 70. That remains the case for Davis, whose arm strength is elite and at least a 70-grade tool, but his offensive development and performance this spring have pushed him up draft boards to the point where most teams consider him the best college position player in the 2021 class. Davis entered Louisville with a swing that was described as too steep, lengthy and stiff. He’s improved that significantly over three seasons, though his swing is still a bit unorthodox. Davis sets up with a crouched and open stance, with his hands at shoulder length before cocking back in his load and striding to an even or closed setup. It’s a strength-based swing more than a twitchy, fluid, bat-speed operation, but Davis combines standout zone recognition, bat-to-ball skills and plus power to his pull side to make everything work. Davis walked more than he struck out at Louisville and flirted with .400 for a long stretch in 2021 while also hitting a career-high 15 homers. Davis produced against every pitch type this spring, though he has shown more swing and miss against changeups. Scouts are split on whether Davis will catch at the next level. He has the arm strength and athleticism—he’s a good runner for a catcher—but needs to work on his blocking and receiving.

5. KUMAR ROCKER, RHP | VANDERBILT

AGE: 21. B-T: R-R. HT: 6-5. WT: 245. DRAFTED: ROCKIES 2018 (38).

Rocker was one of the top high school pitching prospects in the loaded 2018 prep class that included lefthanders Matthew Liberatore and Ryan Weathers and righthanders Ethan Hankins and Carter Stewart. Despite ranking as the No. 13 player in the class and a consensus first-round talent, Rocker made it to campus at Vanderbilt, where he was the highest-ranked player in BA's college recruiting rankings history. He delivered on the hype and became the 2019 Freshman of the Year. Because of Rocker’s pedigree and collegiate track record, he entered the tumultuous 2021 draft cycle as the de facto No. 1 player in the 2021 class and remains in the top tier of players despite a lack of a consensus 1-1 standout. Rocker has a large frame befitting a workhorse big league starter. Rocker’s father Tracy played football at Auburn and briefly in the NFL. Kumar has power stuff, headlined by a fastball up to 99 mph and a devastating slider in the low-to-mid 80s that grades at times as a double-plus offering and is one of the better breaking pitches in the 2021 class. Rocker dealt with inconsistent velocity this spring, sitting in the 89-93 mph range at times before getting back to his usual mid-90s stuff. He still overwhelmed SEC hitters even without his best velocity, but scouts question how that pitch will play at the next level, especially due to the fact that his fastball has played down