Ready for take-off: aviation is bouncing back from Covid-19

Mass international travel spread Covid-19 across the globe. No wonder, then, that the airline industry has borne the brunt of governments’ restrictions on movement during the pandemic. This has affected all parts of the sector, with “some airlines going bankrupt, others being forced to seek state bailouts and most carriers having to make large numbers of staff redundant”, says Dr Alexander Grous from the Department of Media and Communication at the London School of Economics.

Still, recent signs that vaccines could bring the virus under control have fuelled optimism, with the share prices of many airlines higher than they were a year ago. But will the bounce endure?

How many passengers will return?

There is considerable uncertainty about the exact pace of the recovery in passenger numbers. Grous, who has completed several research projects on the future of air transport, takes the pessimistic view that the recovery “is likely to be slow and painful”, even in the short term.

Governments have adopted a“fragmented approach” to travel restrictions, with most countries requiring some form of self-isolation and some effectively banning both incoming and outbound travel to prevent the spread of new variants.

While the rollout of vaccines