As US puts heat on China, Japan under pressure to side with Taiwan

While in the past Japan could get by with this ambiguity, experts say a confluence of factors - including growing pressure from the US, shared security concerns over Beijing's perceived aggression towards Taiwan, and a Japanese public that is largely sympathetic to its island neighbour - is putting Tokyo under pressure to clarify its stance.

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"Taiwan is geopolitically important not only for Japan and China but for the whole world, and China's military aggression against Taiwan will have a serious negative impact on the world economy," said Jin Matsubara, a former chairman of the National Public Safety Commission and presently a member of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, the centre-left party that is the largest opposition force. 

"Although the Japanese government only has formal diplomatic ties with Beijing, there is very strong pro-Taiwan sentiment among the Japanese people because of our historical ties and because we share the values of freedom, democracy, human rights and the rule of law," said Matsubara, who is a member of the all-party Japan-Taiwan Parliamentary Group.

The group has more than 230 members, accounting for nearly one-third of all members in the Diet, Japan's parliament, and indicating the depth of support for Japan's southern neighbour.

Japan's sense of affinity with Taiwan is greater than its ties with South Korea, which was similarly a Japanese colony in the early decades of the last century, analysts point out. Taiwan's former President Lee Teng-hui serving in the Japanese army as an officer while studying at Kyoto University, once declaring in an interview, "I was Japanese until the age of 22."

"Japanese people have never forgotten that Taiwan offered warm support immediately after the devastating earthquake and tsunami struck eastern Japan on March 11, 2011, reminding us of the precious bond between Japan and Taiwan," he said. 

Tokyo's concern goes far beyond the well-being of the people of Taiwan, however, and is evolving from a sense of fraternal friendship to a deepening belief that the two governments need to be prepared to work together in the event that Beijing moves to seize the island by force. That echoes the agreement between Defence Minister Nobuo Kishi and his US counterpart, Lloyd Austin, during their discussion in Tokyo last week. 

The island of Taiwan is also militarily critical to the region, analysts say, as the central link in the "first island chain" off the coast of the Asian mainland that has served to hem the Chinese navy into its coastal waters and make it almost impossible to sortie into the Pacific without being detected. 

The issue had also served to unite domestic parties, he said, adding that there was a "strong consensus across the political spectrum that Taiwan is very important to Japan and that must be reflected in government policy towards China." 

Robert Dujarric, co-director of the Institute of Contemporary Asian Studies at the Tokyo campus of Temple University, said many Taiwanese had a favourable attitude towards Japan and would far rather work with Tokyo than Beijing as China would use any cooperation as a way of "taking over" the island. 

"From Japan's perspective, Chinese control of the island would be a major strategic threat to Japan and we have to assume that since the late 1990s, when China began to be seen as a threat, that there have been discreet discussions on security and geopolitical issues between Tokyo and Taipei," he said. 

And, he added, an act of aggression against Taiwan by China would be the "red line" for Japan that Beijing's actions in Hong Kong could not be. 

"With Hong Kong, there was very little that any other country could do," Dujarric said. "It is geographically part of China and the only possible thing that Japan might have been able to do would have been to induce expats and Hong Kong people to move to Japan. 

"But Taiwan, on the other hand, is the red line for everyone and the US will move to defend the island," he said. "If the US went to war over Taiwan, then it would be very difficult for Japan not to be sucked into that conflict."

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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