Japan in 'impossible situation' over Diaoyu visit request, after Blinken blasts Chinese 'aggression'

Tokyo has been put in an "impossible situation" after local government officials in Ishigaki asked permission to travel to a group of islands at the centre of a territorial dispute between Japan and China.

A spokesman for Ishigaki's city hall said an application had been submitted to the national government for the officials to travel by boat to the Senkaku Islands, which lie about 170km north of Ishigaki, the most southerly part of Okinawa. The islands are officially under Japan's jurisdiction but claimed by Beijing as Chinese territory and known in China as the Diaoyus.

The request leaves Japan in a quandary as agreeing to it would further strain its already tense relationship with Beijing, while turning it down could be interpreted as a sign it does not fully call the shots over the territory.

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Raising the pressure further is that the islands are increasingly a point of contention in the testy Sino-US relationship. During a visit to Tokyo on Tuesday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken claimed China's stance towards the islands was an example of its increasingly "aggressive" actions abroad.

With Beijing likely still smarting from Blinken's words, analysts warn that a visit to the islands by a group of small-time Japanese politicians will appear particularly provocative.

The city has applied for permission to land on the five largest islands in the archipelago and install signboards bearing the new name of the territory, which it formally administers and renamed in October from Tonoshiro to Tonoshiro Senkaku.

Separately, the local authority on Monday approved a proposal from a resident calling on the national government to carry out a visual inspection of the islands from the air.

The change in the administrative name of the islands was approved in a meeting chaired by Mayor Yoshitaka Nakayama, the city hall spokesman said, though he did not know whether Nakayama intended to join the group travelling to the island.

He said firmer plans would be made once the national government had decided whether the group should be permitted to land on the islands, but he declined to comment on the expected response from Tokyo.

Officials from Ishigaki had been able to travel to the Senkakus freely in the past, he added, although Tokyo had not permitted anyone to set foot on the islands since the Japanese government bought them from a private owner, the Kurihara family, in 2012.

The Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea. Photo: Kyodo

DIFFICULT POSITION

Analysts said that however Tokyo responded to the application there would be clear implications attached to its decision.

"While Japan has never engaged in placing large or permanent structures on the islands or basing military or other personnel there, the Senkakus have been regularly visited and a lighthouse structure was built there a few years ago," said James Brown, a professor of international relations at the Tokyo campus of Temple University.

"So this is not unprecedented and there may very well be a genuine need and justification for these officials to go there," he said.

"But, at the same time, this could also be an opportunity for a more hot-headed individual in the local government to try to force Tokyo to take a stronger stance on the question of sovereignty," he said.

There were precedents, he pointed out, such as the local government in Shimane, in southern Japan, introducing Takeshima Day every February 22 to underline the prefecture's claim that the islands - presently controlled by South Korea, which refers to them as Dok-do - are Japanese territory.

"So this application really puts the national government in an impossible situation," Brown said.

Tokyo's official position is that the islands are an integral part of its territory and, consequently, there should be no reason why the local government should not be able to go to the islands and exercise that authority.

Equally, he pointed out, the support of the US for Japan's claims to the territory was based on Tokyo exercising administrative control. If Tokyo could not or declined to do that, then its claims were arguably weakened.

Alternatively, if Tokyo did permit local officials to land on the islands, there was likely to be a fierce backlash from China, he said.

"China's stance on the islands has changed dramatically in recent years and we have seen in the last couple of years - and especially in recent months - that Beijing is being far more aggressive in sending coastguard ships into waters around the islands," Brown said.

Concern was elevated further with the passing by Beijing of a new law relating to the coastguard, effectively giving it permission to fire on foreign vessels found in waters claimed by China. With Beijing claiming the islands as its own, the worry is that Chinese ships will exercise that right to fire on Japanese vessels.

"In recent years, Japan has done a pretty good job of avoiding confrontation with China and my guess is that the Japanese government will have to facilitate this visit by the local officials, but they will try to do it in the most unprovocative manner possible," he said.

Communicating the local government's intention to China was a risk, Brown said, but behind-the-scenes messages offered the best chance of avoiding a clash. The response from China was unquantifiable, he added, although Japan would have been relieved at the clear and uncompromising support expressed by the administration of US President Joe Biden on the issue.

With additional reporting by Reuters

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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