Can Biden and Moon form a united front on North Korea amid policy frictions?

After their first phone call, US President Joe Biden and his South Korean counterpart Moon Jae-in emphasised a unified stance on nuclear-armed North Korea.

The two leaders would develop a "comprehensive" joint strategy to work toward denuclearisation and peace on the Korean peninsula, the South's Blue House said in a statement on Thursday, after their first talks since Biden's January 20 inauguration.

But that could prove to be a challenge due to major differences in priorities and outlook between Washington and Seoul, according to analysts, even as the two sides publicly stress their common vision and the enduring strength of their seven-decade alliance.

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Moon, the son of North Korean refugees, has staked his legacy on rapprochement with the North, pushing diplomacy and economic cooperation as key to the eventual reunification of the Korean peninsula, which was divided in the aftermath of World War II.

The South Korean leader held three summits with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in 2018 and served as the most high-profile backer of former US president Donald Trump's unprecedented engagement with the dictator.

But with just 15 months left in his single five-year term, Moon's inter-Korean reconciliation efforts have stalled since the collapse of Trump's second meeting with Kim in Vietnam in 2019.

In June, Pyongyang blew up an inter-Korean liaison office that had stood as one of the few remaining symbols of Moon's outreach to the North, which is officially known as the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK).

Last month, Moon hailed Biden's inauguration as a "new opportunity" to kick-start talks, urging the incoming administration to build on Trump and Kim's Singapore declaration, which pledged to work toward the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula but contained few concrete steps for getting there.

Although Biden has yet to lay out his North Korea policy, he harshly criticised Trump's meetings with Kim, accusing the former president of legitimising a "thug", and has filled his cabinet with Obama-era officials known for their hawkish views, such as Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

During his presidency, Trump placed strains on the US-Korea alliance and offended many South Koreans by pressuring Seoul to massively increase its contribution to the cost of hosting US troops in the country.

Nonetheless, Moon was lucky to work with him in a "strategic sense", said Se Hyun Ahn, vice-president for international affairs at the University of Seoul.

He pointed to Trump's lack of diplomatic experience and knowledge of the situation on the Korean peninsula, which led the former president to adopt an unorthodox style of personal diplomacy with Kim that was enthusiastically embraced by Moon.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he was reviewing the possibility of placing new sanctions on North Korea. Photo: EPA/Bloomberg alt=US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he was reviewing the possibility of placing new sanctions on North Korea. Photo: EPA/Bloomberg

"But Biden's crew knows quite well what the DPRK is about," said Ahn, predicting Moon would face "difficulties" pursuing his agenda during Biden's tenure.

Choi Kang, vice-president of the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul, said it was difficult to imagine a unified policy between Washington and Seoul at present.

"It looks difficult because their policy priorities are different," Choi said. "The Biden administration has major doubts and concerns about the Moon administration."

"As time goes on, friction and discord looks likely to grow," he said.

Some signs of policy discord have already emerged in recent days. In his first media interview this week, Blinken said he was reviewing the possibility of new sanctions on the North, as well as unspecified "diplomatic incentives".

On Wednesday, South Korean Minister for Unification Lee In-young told a press conference that it could be time to review the effectiveness of the sanctions implemented so far and questioned the rationale for strengthening measures further.

Minseon Ku, a PhD student in International Relations and Political Psychology at Ohio State University, said the different language used by Seoul and Washington hinted at differences in their approach.

While the Blue House referred to the "Korean peninsula" in its statement on Moon's phone call with Biden, the White House readout referred to the "DPRK".

"This may just seem pedantic, but it suggests two things: first, Moon is signalling South Korea's continued active role in driving US-North Korea rapprochement while negotiating with the US on its own terms on issues like sanctions that hinder inter-Korea processes, and second, the new Biden administration seeks to approach the North Korea issue on its own terms, whether that be sanctions or talks," Ku said.

"In other words, it remains uncertain how much room or say Biden is willing to give South Korea in the US' North Korea policy."

The "core issue" between the sides will be Biden's willingness to entertain sanctions relief, suspensions of military exercise, and high-level talks with the North, said Van Jackson, a former North Korea policy adviser during the Obama administration.

"Moon likely wants Biden to go much further than Biden's people would like," said Jackson, while stressing that it was too early to tell how the US administration's policy would unfold.

Some analysts suggest a partial easing of sanctions in exchange for smaller concessions than full denuclearisation might be the most realistic way the allies can move forward.

North Korea's Kim Jong-un and then-US president Donald Trump meet on the south side of the Military Demarcation Line that divides North and South Korea, in the Demilitarized Zone on June 30, 2019. Photo: AFP/Getty Images/TNS alt=North Korea's Kim Jong-un and then-US president Donald Trump meet on the south side of the Military Demarcation Line that divides North and South Korea, in the Demilitarized Zone on June 30, 2019. Photo: AFP/Getty Images/TNS

Such a proposal could involve some reduction in the North's arsenal or greater trilateral defence cooperation involving South Korea and Japan, whose historically rocky relations have long been seen in Washington as an impediment to greater regional security.

"Moon's staff and his foreign minister are intelligent enough to understand that Biden's support for the conciliatory policy is essential," said Nam Chang-hee, professor of international relations at Inha University.

"The establishment of a trilateral consultative commission in response to North Korea's advanced missile capabilities would be a good starting point," Nam said.

Yongho Kim, a professor of political science and international relations at Yonsei University, said it could not be ruled out that Biden would support inter-Korean rapprochement, so long as the North took "convincing steps toward denuclearisation".

"Biden and Moon should draw a blueprint by picking up where Trump and Kim Jong-un failed to generate an agreement in Vietnam," said Kim.

"Drawing a patient and step-by-step blueprint vis-a-vis moratorium on Pyongyang's nuclear and missile activity is simple and at the same time complicated, but it's the only answer."

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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