Spectre of lockdown looms again in Malaysia after record coronavirus surge

Surging Covid-19 numbers in Malaysia have alarmed public health experts, who are urging the government to take swift action amid speculation another nationwide lockdown will be instituted to throttle the spread of the disease.

The country on Thursday recorded 3,027 new cases, its highest ever daily total and a sharp uptick from the single-digit increases marked in July after Malaysia emerged from a months-long movement control order.

Noor Hisham Abdullah, the nation's top health official, told a press conference the health system was "at a breaking point" due to the increase in cases.

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"We may not be able to accommodate patients in our facilities. We are looking into how we can enhance our health care system. But best would be to ... reduce the load," he said, mooting a "targeted" lockdown approach he likened to Singapore's "circuit breaker" last year. "Discussions are ongoing and probably we will make some decisions as soon as possible."

According to health minister Adham Baba, the government is currently fine tuning its national vaccination plan, which is scheduled to start next month and will make inoculations available to all Malaysians.

Malaysia has recorded 128,465 cases of Covid-19 and 521 related deaths, with 25,221 currently active cases. Authorities have warned that daily case numbers could hit 8,000 by mid-March if the basic reproduction number increases further.

The rise in cases, experts say, can be attributed to a combination of causes including public complacency, analogue contact tracing, lack of leadership and a state election in Sabah late last year.

In an open letter to Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin - who has led the country since taking over via political coup in February last year - several academics, health experts and public figures including former United Nations assistant secretary general Jomo Kwame Sundaram proposed a slew of measures for the government to take.

Doctors examine samples for coronavirus testing at a screening facility in Shah Alam, on the outskirts of Kuala Lumpur, on January 8. Photo: AP alt=Doctors examine samples for coronavirus testing at a screening facility in Shah Alam, on the outskirts of Kuala Lumpur, on January 8. Photo: AP

These include ramping up testing and utilising antigen rapid-test kits, automating contact tracing, and expediting regulatory processes so immunisation can begin as soon as the first doses of vaccines arrive in Malaysia.

"Debunking Covid-19 and vaccine disinformation would empower our [people] with informed consent when the vaccines arrive. Apart from prioritising the high risk groups, seriously consider vaccinating migrant workers to protect our industries and the refugee community who are silent epicentres of outbreaks," the open letter read.

In a separate statement, the Social and Economic Research Initiative (SERI) think tank also called for fresh, urgent measures, including a ban on non-essential events and public gatherings, as well as amnesty for undocumented foreign workers who come forward to get tested.

"Herd immunity will only be achieved after many months. Non-compliance with public health intervention systems will undeniably result in negative economic and societal impact," SERI chief executive Helmy Haja Mydin said.

Ramping up mass testing, especially making use of the rapid-test kits, was a key measure that could be easily implemented, said research associate Nazihah Noor of Khazanah Research Institute.

"It's not just about testing a lot of people, but also testing frequently, she said. "Those who come in contact with members outside their households, such as essential workers and politicians, need to do regular, frequent testing."

Although Covid-19 had appeared to be under control for a period in Malaysia after the lockdown - under which businesses were shuttered, and the economy took a beating - the subsequent relaxing of measures, including allowing gatherings and interstate travel, contributed to the rise in numbers.

"We need an immediate ban on mass gatherings of any kind. We also need an immediate ban on interstate travel to slow down the spread of cases from one state to the next," Nazihah said.

This was echoed by health policies specialist Dr Khor Swee Kheng from the University of Oxford, who said the extant problems had "compounded over time and combined to cause the recent rise".

"We must fix all these problems simultaneously," he said. "For example, our contact tracing is still mostly analogue despite living in a digital world. Our testing strategy does not appear coordinated between the health and human resources [for foreign workers], nor is there a clear philosophy about the scale of testing or how to integrate [antigen rapid-test kits] with PCR tests. Movement restrictions can be helpful, but cannot continue to be a de facto 'first choice' policy tool."

Meanwhile, rumours of a looming lockdown similar to the one implemented in March have caused businesses to warn of economic collapse. Experts say that without stronger social safety net programmes, including major efforts to expand coverage and reduce qualifying conditions to receive assistance, another nationwide lockdown would further deepen existing socioeconomic disparities.

Analyst Calvin Cheng from the Institute Of Strategic and International Studies' economics, trade and regional integration division noted that the cost of another prolonged nationwide lockdown would be "both severe and deeply unequal".

"Data indicates that the costs of the previous lockdown were borne primarily by marginalised and vulnerable groups like women, youth, and lesser-educated or poorer households - with groups at the intersection of multiple vulnerabilities hit the hardest, both in terms of adverse labour market impacts as well as the social and psychosocial effects," he said.

"Meanwhile, tertiary-educated, wealthier workers and households have been relatively unscathed, on average."

While a strict lockdown might be "the only option at flattening the curve again", it was unsustainable as a strategy, said Nazihah of Khazanah Research Institute.

"It can buy us time, but the cost is high so we must make sure to use this time well so that we never need to do another again. At the moment, a wide-scale movement control order may make sense only because there are so many red zones, but in the future, we need more targeted restrictions instead of blanket lockdowns."

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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