Next Jokowi? Indonesia's regional elections give glimpse of leaders of the future
Aditya Halindra Faridzki's Instagram posts used to get around 2,000 likes. While he was a local lawmaker in Tuban regency, Indonesia's East Java, he remained relatively unknown on the national political stage.
All that changed on December 9, when the Southeast Asian nation held simultaneous regional elections to select local leaders in 270 localities.
Aditya, who looks set to be Tuban's new district chief, became a star on social media when photographs of his good looks went viral on TikTok and Twitter. Now his Instagram posts get between 14,000 and 20,000 likes.
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His profiles in local media tend to follow a similar narrative: he is young, single, and is set to be one of the youngest local leaders in Indonesia. Early "quick count" results suggest Aditya took 60 per cent of the vote in his area, well ahead of his two contenders.
Quick counts are a sampling of the results at ballot stations, where pollsters monitor open vote counts at a select number of polls. The results are usually accurate in Indonesia. Official tallies will be announced by the election body this month.
"If he wins I think he is going to go viral as the youngest and most handsome district chief," Instagram user Muftikhatil wrote under one of Aditya's Instagram posts last week.
Aditya is part of a new crop of young, local leaders emerging from the regional elections, who provide an insight into the future leadership of Indonesia.
Indonesian President Joko Widodo started his political career as a mayor in Solo, Central Java. Photo: Reuters alt=Indonesian President Joko Widodo started his political career as a mayor in Solo, Central Java. Photo: Reuters
The path from regional to national politics is well-trodden by figures with good leadership qualities. The most prominent example is President Joko Widodo, who started his political career as a mayor in the city of Solo, Central Java. He later won the gubernatorial election in the capital of Jakarta, and within two years of that victory, he vacated that post to become the country's leader.
"[Regional elections are] important for emerging individual leaders, especially because people have seen the model or the path that Jokowi took, so it is natural to see this progression from directly elected local leadership positions to those who have the potential or the ambition to run for the presidency," said Ben Bland, director of the Southeast Asia programme at the Sydney-based think tank Lowy Institute, referring to Widodo's popular nickname.
"It's a test of your individual political skill, your ability to campaign, your ability to function with a wide range of political parties and to catch media attention as well."
Despite the coronavirus pandemic, the regional elections went largely smoothly.
Voter turnout was estimated at around 60 per cent, which analysts said was impressive in the current climate. More than 100 million Indonesians were eligible to vote. In comparison, voter turnout in the recent presidential election in the United States was 66.7 per cent, but only 35 million voted in-person.
"Voter participation appears to have reached a range of 60-65 per cent, which is extraordinarily high considering the daunting reasons for voters to avoid venturing out to polling stations. This indicates continued high support among voters for engaging in democracy," said Kevin O'Rourke from Indonesia-focused newsletter Reformasi.
Regional elections could also offer a gauge for the 2024 presidential elections. The elections showed political dynasties remained prominent in the world's third largest democracy, with various winners related to serving political figures.
Gibran Rakabuming, Indonesian President Joko Widodo's eldest son, won a lacklustre mayoral race in Solo. Photo: Bloomberg alt=Gibran Rakabuming, Indonesian President Joko Widodo's eldest son, won a lacklustre mayoral race in Solo. Photo: Bloomberg
Prominent among them were Gibran Rakabuming, Widodo's eldest son, 33, who won a lacklustre mayoral race in Solo; and Bobby Nasution, 29, Widodo's son-in-law who's set to be the new mayor in Medan, North Sumatra. Aditya, meanwhile, is the son of a two-term former Tuban district chief.
"The weaknesses of regional-head elections pertain not to the system or the electoral
authorities who manage the process, but rather to the tendencies of parties to recruit lacklustre candidates, including the relatives of incumbents and elites," O'Rourke said.
Political elites would thus determine the contenders of the 2024 presidential elections, and track records alone would not guarantee a candidate's name on their party' ticket, Bland said.
"In the 2024 presidential election, we are likely to see a similar interplay between elite politics and popular aspirations. Indonesian voters want effective, responsive and corruption-free leaders but the political system favours established dynasties, political parties and tycoons who want to keep power for themselves. Still, thanks to Indonesia's free and fair elections, the elites need to pick candidates who are popular enough to win," Bland said.
Not all candidates from political dynasties won their races. Siti Nur Azizah, the daughter of Vice-President Ma'ruf Amin, and Rahayu Saraswati, the niece of Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto, both lost in the South Tangerang mayoral race, while Munafri Arifuddin, the nephew of former vice-president Jusuf Kalla, lost in the Makassar mayoral race. In the Surabaya mayoral race, Eri Cahyadi, a protege of the beloved outgoing mayor, Tri Rismaharini, won against a powerful police general, Mahcfud Arifin.
The regional elections also underlined the tendency of parties to form coalitions with rival groups promoting different ideologies to support a particular candidate, said Arya Fernandes, a researcher at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies Indonesia.
Aditya's nomination, for example, was backed by Golkar, which belongs to Widodo's coalition, and two opposition parties, the nationalist Democrat Party and PKS, an Islamist party.
"At the national level, the process to form a coalition will also be similar. In 2024, Jokowi would not be able to run again so his party has to nominate someone else. As the threshold for parties to be able to nominate presidential candidates is high, parties will be very open to form a coalition with anyone," Arya said.
This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).
Copyright (c) 2020. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.
