Australia needs South Korea, but Kim Jong-un and China are in the way

Think of the Korean peninsula and what comes to mind? For those in the Australian foreign policy community, the picture has less to do with South Korea's increasing reputation as a global middle power or the tremendous success of its cultural exports.

Rather, it's North Korea's nuclear ambitions and its corresponding security impact in the region and beyond, according to Jeffrey Robertson, a diplomatic studies professor at Yonsei University in Seoul, who co-wrote an article in the Melbourne Asia Review late last month that said South Korea faces an image problem in Australia.

While experts say it is unwise to overlook South Korea's growing influence, Australia's close ties with the United States will make it harder for Seoul to cooperate further with Canberra without offending Beijing.

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Robertson noted that despite South Korea being a political ally and the fourth-largest trading partner of Australia, foreign policy commentaries written in Australia have focused mostly on North Korea, which has "virtually non-existent" ties with Canberra.

"Our research shows that Australians overwhelmingly see the Korean peninsula through a security lens," Robertson said, referring to a review of articles about the two Koreas published by Australia's five major foreign policy commentary platforms.

They are The Interpreter, published by the Lowy Institute, a Sydney-based think tank; The Strategist, the commentary site of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), a Canberra-based think tank; the East Asia Forum based out of the Crawford School of Public Policy at the Australian National University; The Conversation, a Melbourne-founded independent source of news and views from the academic and research community; and the Australian Outlook, published by the independent Australian Institute of International Affairs.

During the surveyed period from January 2017 to August this year, the ASPI, for instance, published 66 articles on North Korea, but only nine on the South.

Most commentaries about Korea focused on North Korea's authoritarian leadership and its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programmes, noted Robertson in the article, which was co-written with Yonsei University student Addie Gerszberg.

Pointing out that this imbalance was also reflected in the mainstream media, Robertson said Australia needed to pay better attention to South Korea, which was an important future source of international students for the tertiary education sector. The industry is currently struggling as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.

Tom Corben, a resident Vasey Fellow at the Honolulu-based foreign policy research institute Pacific Forum, said overlooking South Korea's growing economic and military power increased the risk that Australia could be caught off guard by a major policy shift, such as if Seoul were to go nuclear or dissolve its alliance with Washington.

Peter K. Lee, a doctoral student at Australian National University's Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, said even though North Korea's nuclear weapons remained a key regional security concern, there needed to be "a balance between the urgent short term and important long term to understand where South Korea is heading".

Corben, responding to Robertson's point that South Korea perceived Australia's foreign policy to be a reflection of US policy, said Canberra's vocal criticism of Beijing made Seoul nervous about cooperating more closely with Australia.

"Seoul is wary of being seen as too closely associated with a country that Beijing has repeatedly identified as Washington's chief lackey," said Corben. "I don't expect Australia to become less outspoken on China given recent developments, so South Korea is likely to continue to see only limited scope for cooperation without attracting Chinese ire."

A visitor looks at a display of Australian wines at an expo in China. Souring Sino-Australia ties may discourage Seoul from engaging further with Canberra, experts say. Photo: AP alt=A visitor looks at a display of Australian wines at an expo in China. Souring Sino-Australia ties may discourage Seoul from engaging further with Canberra, experts say. Photo: AP

In recent days, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison has demanded an apology from China for a photo illustration of an Australian soldier holding a knife to the throat of an Afghan child. Beijinghas accused Morrison of overreacting to the incident, which was sparked by a report that found Australian troops had killed civilians in Afghanistan.

US President-elect Joe Biden's choice for national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, last week said that Washington would stand "shoulder to shoulder" with Canberra in its ongoing tensions with Beijing.

For Australia to reposition its view of South Korea, Corben said Seoul needed to articulate its own regional strategic vision, one that included deepening relationships and expanding cooperation with middle powers such as Australia.

President Moon Jae-in's New Southern Policy, Corben noted, was primarily a blueprint for economic engagement with emerging regional markets such as India and Southeast Asia.

"It lacks a strategic component, and omits Australia entirely," said Corben, who added that Seoul's present fixation with inter-Korean ties meant limited opportunities for the two countries to cooperate on their own terms away from the peninsula.

Lee noted that Koreans saw Australia as a valuable partner in areas such as tourism, education and migration, but "this has not always translated into high-level interest".

"More needs to be done to also highlight the deep complementarity of values and interests at the political and strategic levels," Lee said.

Last year, Morrison and Moon outlined plans for an expanded period of collaboration on key national security issues, including defence, industry development and energy security.

Even though both sides signed a free-trade agreement in 2014 and their strategic partnership dates back to the Korean war, analysts have said that security ties can be further strengthened, such as Canberra purchasing more defence items from Seoul.

As Bill Paterson, an ASPI senior fellow and former ambassador to South Korea, wrote in The Strategist in August this year, Seoul was frequently listed by Canberra as among the partners with which it was keen to build closer defence ties.

But in reality, efforts on both sides appeared to have been "minor and lacking in commitment, resources and enthusiasm", Paterson said.

If Australia succeeded in its bid to acquire K9 Thunder self-propelled howitzers from South Korea's Hanwha Defence - the deal was scuttled in 2012 following funding cuts by the Australian government - it would lay the foundations for a much stronger defence partnership, Paterson said.

Meanwhile, not everyone has agreed that the Australian foreign policy community views the Korean peninsula in the context of North Korea.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in meets Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison at a summit in New York on 24 September, 2019. Photo: Handout alt=South Korean President Moon Jae-in meets Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison at a summit in New York on 24 September, 2019. Photo: Handout

Ramesh Thakur, Emeritus Professor at the Australian National University Crawford School of Public Policy, said it was in the nature of commentaries to focus more on conflicts and crises.

Citing the case of New Zealand, which receives very little coverage in the Australian media, Thakur said this did not mean Australian foreign policy watchers thought its Pacific neighbour was unimportant.

"If New Zealand were a constantly troublesome and troubled neighbour, it would get a lot more media attention" in Australia, Thakur said.

Bec Strating, executive director of La Trobe Asia at La Trobe University Bundoora, said both South Korea and Australia shared a similar status as middle-sized states and US security allies.

But apart from being participants in Mikta - a grouping of middle-sized states that includes Mexico, Indonesia, Korea, Turkey and Australia - both Seoul and Canberra also have China as their biggest trading partner and have been subjected to "economic coercion tactics" from Beijing.

"There may be opportunities to deepen relations as increasing strategic competition between the great powers presents new challenges for middle-sized states," Strating said.

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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