What went wrong for China and Australia, and what will happen next?
In recent decades, China has often touted its relations with Australia as a sterling example of win-win bilateral ties. China is Australia's largest and best customer, accounting for more than a third of all Australian exports ranging from iron ore to wine to milk powder, and this strong Chinese demand powered an economic boom down under. Australia is also one of the most popular destinations for Chinese tourists, students, immigrants and rich investors seeking business opportunities.
It is also a favourite stop for Chinese leaders. Xi Jinping has visited Australia five times - the first trip was in 1988 when he was a local official in Fujian and the last was in November 2014 as president, when he fulfilled his wish of visiting all six Australian states. During his last visit, Xi and Tony Abbott, the prime minister at the time, agreed to upgrade bilateral ties to a "comprehensive strategic partnership" and announced the conclusion of negotiations on a landmark free trade agreement.
As Xi put it then, China and Australia could become mutually trusted "sincere partners" as they had neither historical grievances nor conflicting fundamental interests.
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How times have changed. Over the past three years, the two countries have gradually but surely become bitter adversaries, sparring over trade and investment, perceived Chinese influence in Australian politics, Canberra's criticism of Beijing for its behaviour and practices, and now over a tweet by a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman.
What has gone wrong? Why does China particularly target Australia with unusual wrath at a time when it is faced with strong backlash from Western countries?
The latest diplomatic crisis escalated on Monday when Zhao Lijian, the spokesman, tweeted a digitally created image of an Australian solider cutting the throat of a young boy in Afghanistan and wrote: "Shocked by murder of Afghan civilians & prisoners by Australian soldiers. We strongly condemn such acts & call for holding them accountable".
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison reacted strongly, demanding an apology from the Chinese government and the removal of the "repugnant" post.
Morrison got neither as the Chinese government doubled down, insisting that the image was an artistic expression and the Australian government should feel ashamed of the "heinous crimes" committed by its soldiers in Afghanistan, including allegations that two boys were killed by having their throats slit, as detailed in the findings of a years-long investigation into alleged war crimes and abuses.
The spat came soon after the Chinese government imposed import curbs on a slew of Australian products over the past few months, including wine, barley, copper and coal.
Analysts have speculated that Beijing is targeting Canberra because of its economic reliance on trade with China, and as a warning to other Western countries, especially as incoming US president Joe Biden has publicly stated that America would seek to form a united front with its allies against China.
Others believe that Beijing's attacks are also part of its tactics to divert attention from its own human rights issues in Xinjiang and Tibet.
They noted that China hardened its attitude towards Australia in April after it was the first foreign country to publicly call for an open investigation into the origin of the coronavirus pandemic and the mishandling of the initial outbreak in Wuhan - one of the 14 grievances Chinese diplomats in Canberra shared with the local media last month.
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet during the G20 in Osaka, Japan. Photo: Handout alt=Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet during the G20 in Osaka, Japan. Photo: Handout
This speculation may be valid, but there are deeper reasons to show that Beijing's anger is not triggered by any specific policy but more a stark realisation that over the past three years, Australia has been increasingly vocal and hostile in its manner of hammering China without regard for the feelings of its best customer for decades.
Since early 2017 - less than two years after the free-trade agreement that signalled a bright future went into effect - Australia has become the first country to ban Huawei and ZTE from its 5G networks, has passed foreign interference laws targeting China, and has been relentless in its criticisms of China's human rights abuses and Beijing's policies on the South China Sea dispute, Taiwan and Hong Kong, as detailed in the list of 14 grievances.
Moreover, from Beijing's perspective, Australia has not only acted as the proxy of the United States to take on China in the Asia-Pacific region but has in some ways set an example for the US and other Western countries to follow.
Indeed, back in 2018, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo praised Australia's new foreign interference laws, citing them as a rare example of an American ally responding to an increasingly assertive China.
Beijing was further incensed when Australia was seen as leading an international campaign for an investigation into the early stages of the coronavirus outbreak, which Chinese officials said was politically motivated.
Beijing is now sending an unmistakable message that all these actions will have consequences.
The national flags of Australia and China are displayed before a portrait of Mao Zedong in Tiananmen Square, during a visit by the Australian prime minister in 2011. Photo: AFP alt=The national flags of Australia and China are displayed before a portrait of Mao Zedong in Tiananmen Square, during a visit by the Australian prime minister in 2011. Photo: AFP
What is likely to happen next?
Following his outburst on Monday, Morrison indicated on Tuesday that he did not want to see any escalation of the matter and even posted a statement on the Chinese social platform WeChat, saying that the spat would not diminish the respect and appreciation Australia had for the Chinese people.
But his words will do little to placate Beijing as Chinese officials have repeatedly said that Australia will have to take "concrete actions" if it wants to improve bilateral ties.
The Chinese government has prepared to dig in, with its state media running commentaries blasting Australia's double standards and hypocrisy, while Morrison's post was blocked by WeChat operator Tencent the next day.
On Tuesday, Hua Chunying, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson, accused Australia of treating China with an "I can, but you can't" approach, referring to a Chinese social media post that Australia could feel free to criticise China and restrict Chinese investments but reacted strongly to China's criticism and its decision to curb imports of Australian products.
Martin Jacques, a British author frequently interviewed by the Chinese media, on Tuesday tweeted that Morrison's onslaught against his country's largest trading partner, from banning Huawei to the calls for a Covid-19 inquiry, showed "contempt for China and the Chinese. They never thought China would retaliate. Didn't take them seriously. Call it white Australian chauvinism." The post was widely shared on Chinese social media platforms.
While China's print and online media platforms are predominantly supportive of Beijing's tough position on Australia, there are still a few dissenting voices. One of them is Zhang Ning, a researcher with the China Academy of Social Sciences, a leading government think tank, who raised questions over the high-profile way Zhao retweeted the image, and for what purpose. He argued in a social media post that the aim of diplomacy was to make more friends and fewer enemies.
It is too early to say how long the tensions between the two countries will continue. Back in 2016, China and South Korea sparred over the deployment of a US anti-missile system in South Korea, with Beijing claiming the system's radar could be used to spy on China. The stand-off lasted more than a year, which dealt a severe blow to Korean businesses relying on Chinese consumers and tourists.
Having said that, any reset of the relationship between China and Australia needs to be seen in the bigger context of evolving China-US relations under the Biden presidency.
In his latest interview with The New York Times, Biden indicated that he wanted to conduct a coherent China strategy after getting traditional US allies in Asia and Europe on the same page.
This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).
Copyright (c) 2020. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.
