In one US-China battle, Americans have taken the lead: 'golden' visa applications to New Zealand

While Chinese nationals used to make up the bulk of applicants for New Zealand's so-called golden Investor Visa, they have been overtaken by Americans between April and October this year, with US citizens accounting for close to half of applications amid the Covid-19 pandemic and political uncertainty across the United States.

During the same period last year, Americans accounted for just 3 per cent of applications while Chinese applicants made up 43 per cent of the group, according to data from New Zealand's Department of Immigration. The share of Chinese applicants slid to 25.4 per cent for April to October this year.

To be considered for such a visa - called the "golden visa" because it comes with the possibility of permanent residency in exchange for a large sum of money - each applicant is required to have a minimum of NZ$3 million (US$2.05 million) in available funds or assets and a detailed plan of investment.

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David Cooper, chief executive of Malcolm Pacific Immigration, a private immigration consultancy with offices in Auckland and Wellington, said Americans specifically have struggled with a "quadruple whammy" this year, pushing them to seek homes abroad and somewhere safe for investment.

"They're saying the civil unrest, the political instability, the bush fires in California and Covid-19 are pushing them over the edge," he said. "We've had a regular stream of phone calls and emails coming in - people just want to know how they can move to New Zealand,"

New Zealand is currently virtually free of Covid-19, while the US is in the midst of a resurgence, averaging over 100,000 daily cases since the start of November.

Georg Chimel, head of the Chinese real estate portal Juwai, said the reason for fewer Chinese applicants was likely that staying in China was the safer option. 

"In China, both the economy and the coronavirus are looking better than in any other country. Any applicants who have postponed are thinking that it wouldn't hurt to wait a little longer to see how things shake out," he said, adding that many of his Chinese customers inquire about buying property in New Zealand in tandem with applying for the Investor Visa. "Next year they'll have more money and know better what the emerging risks are."

Cooper said America's pandemic misfortunes coupled with New Zealand's status as a safe haven from Covid-19 gave Wellington the opportunity to capitalise on potentially significant investments through the Investor Visa plan at a time of global economic uncertainty.

"New Zealand has attracted around NZ$2.8 billion (US$1.9 billion) and it's ready to be invested," he said, referring to the amount of money awaiting approval by the government through the visa programme.

"If the government processes these applicants quickly, that's quite a bit of money that could start flowing in," he said. "Once they get here, they're not going to want to leave, so over time we're talking about a lot more than NZ$2.8 billion."

The chaotic US elections and politics in general may be driving some Americans to move abroad. Photo: EPA-ECE alt=The chaotic US elections and politics in general may be driving some Americans to move abroad. Photo: EPA-ECE

This isn't the first time Americans have shown interest in relocating to New Zealand. During the 2016 US presidential election, even the late Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg joked that she might move there if Trump won.

Interest has since spiked again, with Google searches of "how to move to New Zealand" peaking on election night in the US.

"Americans are dealing with a much worse economy, the world's worst pandemic, and political confusion," Chimel said in explaining the interest. "For some Americans, applying for a New Zealand investment visa looks like the smartest thing they could possibly do."

Data also shows that the number of Americans leaving the US for good has drastically increased. According to the Internal Revenue Service, the number of Americans who gave up their citizenship or US residency soared to 5,816 in the first six months of 2020, compared with 2,072 in all of 2019.

And it's not just wealthy investors showing interest in moving overseas. Las Morenas De Espana, a website that helps people of colour move abroad, told The Washington Post that more than 600 people had joined its online community since George Floyd was killed by Minneapolis police in May.

In recent months, Americans wanting to leave the US have flagged police brutality, the conservative takeover of the Supreme Court, lax gun laws, the increasing risk of domestic terrorism and the country's inability to tackle climate change as major concerns.

America's instability aside, it's also New Zealand's ideal conditions for business and leisure alike that are driving much of the interest.

According to the annual Doing Business Report by the World Bank, New Zealand ranked as the top country for ease of doing business for the fourth straight year this year and for ease of starting a business for the 12th year in a row, with the report citing the country's forgiving tax environment, strong government and legal system, modest foreign-exchange controls, lucrative export market and easy visa processing.

A recent Bloomberg survey of around 700 senior executives in a range of industries found that New Zealand's response to the coronavirus pandemic has been the best in the world, and it is seen as the country that gives businesses leaders the most confidence for future investment.

New Zealand is markedly conservative in letting in foreign investors through the golden visa programme - there is a quota of just 400 annually - and so the increase in American interest may lead to a greater percentage of approved American investors overall, with the number of approved Chinese investors decreasing.

Juwai's Chimel said Chinese interest would most definitely return, whether in competition with American investors or not.

"Chinese investment will be back. The country is very appealing. The economy is small but offers excellent opportunities for Chinese investors, including real estate development, agriculture, manufacturing and forestry," he said.

But Cooper said the window for Americans taking advantage of the investment visa could be closing soon. "I would say the interest will only last for around six months. A lot of it will depend on what we see happening on the Covid-19 front and what we see happening in the US now that there's going to be a new president," he said.

"Our view is that the [New Zealand] government needs to move quickly because this opportunity isn't going to last forever."

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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