Sabah election: boost for Malaysia PM Muhyiddin as Gabungan Rakyat Sabah poised for victory

An alliance spearheaded by parties in Malaysian Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin's government is poised for victory in elections in the state of Sabah, unofficial counts by local media showed on Saturday, handing a major boost to the ruling administration as the opposition plots to unseat it through defections.

The Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS), comprising parties in Muhyiddin's Perikatan Nasional alliance and other Sabah-based collaborators, won the 37 seats required to form the next state government, The Star and several leading news websites including the Malay Mail Online said citing unofficial tallies.

Their opponents from the so-called Warisan Plus bloc - comprising chief minister Shafie Apdal's Sabah Heritage Party (Warisan) - as well as parties from the federal opposition bloc, Pakatan Harapan, was winning in 26 seats, the data showed.

Get the latest insights and analysis from our Global Impact newsletter on the big stories originating in China.

Bung Moktar Radin, one of the key figures in the GRS campaign, declared that the bloc had garnered the requisite seats for a simple majority and was in the midst of discussion on its next course of action, including choosing a chief minister.

"We promise that this government will be transparent and the people's welfare is taken care of," he said in a live press conference.

The Election Commission's latest tally of official results showed 22 seats each for Warisan Plus and GRS. Victories for two independent candidates were also confirmed.

Warsan President Shafie Apdal casts his vote during the state elections on Saturday. Photo: AFP alt=Warsan President Shafie Apdal casts his vote during the state elections on Saturday. Photo: AFP

There was also no official turnout figure from the electoral body, but observers had said a turnout of 58 per cent at 3pm - two hours before polls closed - was indicative of lower-than-usual voter participation.

Some 447 candidates from 15 parties were vying for 73 state seats in the polls.

Apart from a debate on whether GRS and its constituents of mainly Peninsular Malaysia parties could faithfully represent Sabah, the campaigning period was dominated by discussions over undocumented immigration in the east Malaysian state and the bellwether role the vote was likely to play in national politics.

The Covid-19 pandemic weighed heavily on campaigning with social distancing measures implemented for mass events.

The East Malaysian state on the island Borneo has experienced a surge in cases in recent weeks - amid the hustings - with 776 positive cases confirmed in one cluster.

Writing on Twitter, veteran Malaysian politics observer Bridget Welsh suggested Warisan's defeat was down to "money, machinery, low voter turnout and splitting" among lower class, female and Muslim voters.

The so-called "KDM" voters comprising those from the indigenous Kadazan, Dusun and Murut ethnic groups "swung back" to the bloc aligned with Muhyiddin, she said.

The state assembly election comes less than six months after a messy political crisis at the federal level saw Muhyiddin gain power with new allies after mass defections in the Pakatan Harapan coalition that won the 2018 election.

Shafie, who won power in the landmark 2018 elections, was staring at the possibility of defections collapsing his state government as well.

But rather than cede power without elections, in July he used his prerogative powers to ask the state governor to dissolve the Sabah legislature.

In the days preceding Saturday's vote, the election was billed by commentators as a key test for Muhyiddin, given relentless efforts by Pakatan Harapan to throttle his administration during his six months in power.

In the latest twist in the power struggle, Pakatan Harapan's leader Anwar Ibrahim on Wednesday announced that he had garnered broad support from across the country's 222-seat parliament to form a new government.

The 73-year-old opposition leader however did not reveal the identities of the MPs backing him, leading observers to suggest his declaration was a vote-winning ploy ahead of the Sabah vote.

Muhyiddin in response has said it was up to Anwar to prove his majority and that he remained the country's legitimate leader.

A change of government requires the assent of the country's constitutional king, Sultan Abdullah Sultan Ahmad Shah, who has taken ill and is recuperating in hospital. The royal palace said on Friday he will not take meetings for the next week.

Muhyiddin during campaigning said he would "hurry up and have the general election" if GRS won the Sabah polls.

A man watches Malaysian Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin give a televised speech via his mobile phone at a restaurant in Kuala Lumpur earlier this month. Photo: Xinhua alt=A man watches Malaysian Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin give a televised speech via his mobile phone at a restaurant in Kuala Lumpur earlier this month. Photo: Xinhua

The prime minister has a two-seat majority in parliament and doubts have been rising over whether he will be able to pass next year's budget when it is debated in November. The 73-year-old leader leads the deeply splintered Parti Bersatu Pribumi Malaysia (Bersatu), and depends on support from Umno's 39 MPs.

Anwar, revealing his countercoup plan on Wednesday, said he had the support of "close to" two thirds of MPs.

Observers have speculated that some members of Perikatan Nasional-allied Umno are backing the opposition leader amid disenchantment with Muhyiddin's leadership.

Peter Mumford, the Eurasia Group think tank's practice head for Southeast and South Asia, said in a note published on Wednesday that there was a possibility that Muhyiddin could call a snap general election before the budget vote.

"A clear victory in Sabah would put upward pressure on our 60 per cent odds of Muhyiddin staying in office until mid-2021, including winning expected federal elections - though this would depend on the relative performance of Bersatu and UMNO, as well as how discussions over the chief minister role progress," Mumford wrote.

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

Copyright (c) 2020. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.