'We know the game China is playing': Australian journalists who fled after diplomatic stand-off speak out

Two Australian journalists who fled China earlier this month have offered a bleak outlook for relations between the countries, with one raising the possibility of Beijing slapping further restrictions on Australian exports.

Michael Smith and Bill Birtles, who abruptly left the country after being questioned by state security officials, said on Thursday they saw little hope for an improvement in ties following months of escalating tensions between Canberra and Beijing.

Smith, who was a correspondent for the Australian Financial Review in Shanghai, said there was widespread concern in Australia's dairy industry that it could be hit next following restrictions targeting Australian beef, barley and wine. The trade measures have been widely seen in Australia as retaliation by its biggest trading partner over Canberra's push for an independent international inquiry into the origins of the coronavirus pandemic, although Beijing has insisted they relate to the normal enforcement of quarantine and trade rules.

Get the latest insights and analysis from our Global Impact newsletter on the big stories originating in China.

"There's ... a lot of talk about a possible anti-dumping inquiry into dairy. The industry is very nervous," said Smith, who had reported from China since 2018 and also did stints in Hong Kong with Reuters and The Standard.

"It's sort of safe to say that almost everything except maybe iron ore and some other commodities are at risk here."

Birtles, who reported from Beijing for five years for the Australian Broadcasting Corporation, predicted relations between the two nations would probably be "pretty rocky and not particularly friendly for a long time".

"It's almost like there is this view now in Australia that let's try and put up with some tough times in the wine industry, in the barley industry," said Birtles, who also worked for the Asia Pacific News Centre in Melbourne with a focus on China. "Let's see if we can withstand this because we know the game that China is playing."

Birtles said he believed that Beijing had decided that Australia was a "lost cause" and efforts to drive a wedge between Canberra and its security ally the United States had failed.

The Australian flag flutters in front of the Great Hall of the People in Beijing during a welcoming ceremony for then-Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull in 2016. Birtles said China now considered Australia a 'lost cause' diplomatically. Photo: Reuters alt=The Australian flag flutters in front of the Great Hall of the People in Beijing during a welcoming ceremony for then-Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull in 2016. Birtles said China now considered Australia a 'lost cause' diplomatically. Photo: Reuters

"I sort of think it almost reflects a decision, a judgment has been made in Beijing, whereas in those initial years there was a lot more uncertainty, I felt, on the Chinese side," said Birtles, who has previously studied Mandarin in Beijing and worked in Chinese television.

The two journalists, as well as The Sydney Morning Herald's former China correspondent Kirsty Needham, made their comments at an online event on Thursday hosted by the Sydney-based Lowy Institute think tank and moderated by one of its senior fellows, former Financial Times China correspondent Richard McGregor.

The pair's rushed departure on September 7 marked the end of the Australian media's presence in China after nearly five decades of uninterrupted coverage, signifying a new low in Sino-Australian ties after months of tensions over issues including Covid-19, trade, espionage allegations, Hong Kong and the South China Sea.

Their exit followed a days-long diplomatic stand-off that saw the men shelter inside Australia's diplomatic posts in Beijing and Shanghai until Chinese officials agreed to allow them to leave the country in exchange for undergoing questioning about detained Chinese-Australian journalist Cheng Lei. Cheng - a prominent anchor with CGTN, the English-language arm of Communist Party mouthpiece CCTV - has been held at an undisclosed location since mid-August on suspicion of "criminal activity endangering China's national security".

Chinese-Australian journalist Cheng Lei has been detained since mid-August on suspicion of 'endangering China's national security'. Photo: AFP alt=Chinese-Australian journalist Cheng Lei has been detained since mid-August on suspicion of 'endangering China's national security'. Photo: AFP

Her detention came after Australian security services in June questioned a number of Chinese state media journalists in connection with a foreign interference investigation involving a state MP, and following the visa cancellations of two Chinese academics focused on Australia. On Thursday, the state-run Global Times tabloid reported that two prominent Australian academics and Communist Party critics, Alex Joske and Clive Hamilton, had been banned from entering China.

Birtles and Smith both said covering China had become much more difficult during their time in the country because of tightening government controls.

"Suddenly no one was criticising China's economic direction any more," said Smith, comparing the relative ease of finding people to air dissenting views about the economy 12 months ago with the situation before his departure. "It was very, very hard to find independent voices inside of China."

Birtles said the more restrictive environment had "almost made it bloody impossible to interview anyone by the end of my stint".

Chinese President Xi Jinping, who Birtles said has had a 'massive win' with the country's near elimination of Covid-19. Photo: Xinhua alt=Chinese President Xi Jinping, who Birtles said has had a 'massive win' with the country's near elimination of Covid-19. Photo: Xinhua

"I really think we are probably in the most extreme ideological period we've seen, probably, since the end of the Cultural Revolution in the 1970s," he said. "That's how tight things have got now in China."

Birtles also said China's near elimination of Covid-19 had been a "massive win" for Chinese President Xi Jinping.

"It is an extraordinary achievement," he said. "And then the US just gave China this gift with its terrible handling of Covid, which has been absolutely exploited for all political gain domestically in China through the state media. Why not, you know? I think Xi comes out of this rock solidly stronger than at the start of the year."

Needham, who left China in 2019 to work for Reuters in Sydney, said Australia was learning how to promote its stated values while doing its largest share of trade with China.

"Australia was one of the first countries to become quite trade reliant on China, and now it seems to be one of the first countries looking at how do we continue to speak up as a democracy on issues like Hong Kong, issues like the pandemic inquiry," she said.

China's heavy dependence on Australian iron ore and coal had bolstered the confidence of officials in Canberra to challenge Beijing, Needham said.

"They feel they will be speaking up more often in multilateral forums on these issues, issues of democracy and values, and it makes it easier for them to do that, if they know that, while all this diplomatic tension is going on, iron ore sales are reaching a record."

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

Copyright (c) 2020. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.