Thai protests: coup fears as Prayuth's top general retires, military hedges US-China bets

When photos of Thailand's outgoing army chief General Apirat Kongsompong visiting soldiers were recently posted on a Facebook page with the hashtag #WeWillNotLetItEndInOurGeneration, some people felt alarmed.

It was seen as a rebuke to the hashtag used by youth protesters - #WeMustLetItEndInOurGeneration - in their calls for military rule to end, the monarchy to be reformed, and for the constitution to be revised after the junta rewrote it to keep Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha in power following his coup in 2014.

As military supporters and protesters exchanged words online, questions have emerged on whether the new hashtag indicates the Thai military will take action against the young protesters over their pro-democracy movement, which began in July.

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Others have worried the military's rebuke of the protesters' hashtag signals a veiled threat of a coup.

The concerns come as a major rally is set to take place in Bangkok on September 19 at Thammasat University, which was the site of a massacre in 1976 by paramilitary right-wing factions of left-wing students and activists.

In the previous protest on August 16, tens of thousands of people marched in Bangkok to call for political change. Protesters are expected to ramp up their demands in this week's demonstration, which falls on the 14th anniversary of a coup that drove out former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, and split the nation into pro-establishment, pro-military factions and pro-democracy, anti-coup groups.

Thai students flash three-finger salutes inspired by The Hunger Games during an anti-government protest in Bangkok. Photo: EPA alt=Thai students flash three-finger salutes inspired by The Hunger Games during an anti-government protest in Bangkok. Photo: EPA

Thais have viewed Apirat with unease. His retirement, which is expected to be at the end of this month, is the ending of a tenure that began in 2018 overseeing the political transition of the junta led by Prayuth.

The country's most outspoken military commander, Apirat is seen as "the face of military opposition to moves towards more civilian control over the military", said Paul Chambers, a security academic at Thailand's Naresuan University.

He has used anti-communist rhetoric of the 1970s to attack opposition members, and has also criticised student protesters.

Early last month, some weeks after the protests began, he said: "Covid-19 can be cured ... but the disease that cannot be cured is the hatred of the nation."

Retiring Thai army chief General Apirat Kongsompong. Photo: AP alt=Retiring Thai army chief General Apirat Kongsompong. Photo: AP

Apirat and other military commanders serve as senators, as mandated in the constitution - something protesters are seeking to change.

They are calling for the military's special voting powers to be removed, thereby preventing them from selecting the prime minister.

Public discontent and distrust of the Prayuth administration and the military rose after the 2019 election, as both held a grip on power that allowed for the military budget to swell almost unchecked through arms deals with China and the US.

The calls for change have intensified in recent months as Thailand's economy is devastated by the coronavirus pandemic.

In April, the army said it had cut 30 per cent of its budget to support the economy and delayed the purchase of some 50 US-made Stryker armoured vehicles and other weapons. The air force also announced budget cuts of over 20 per cent to help the government launch a stimulus package.

The Thai military is also facing pressure from protesters' calls to limit the power of the crown. The army, which has long vowed to protect the monarchy, has been restrained so far, but in a country shaken by about a dozen coups since the end of absolute monarchy in 1932, the possibility of generals directly intervening cannot be ruled out.

"Human rights abuses, harassment against students and restrictions on media freedom will continue until the situation is ripe, when violence eventually takes place, or when the military has enough reasons or find the right moment to press the reset button by staging a coup," said Sek Sophal, a researcher at Ritsumeikan Asia Pacific University. "(General Apirat) is not convinced that students come out to protest by themselves; he believes the opposition parties could have been behind the protests," he said.

On Monday, Apirat denied such a possibility. "Don't worry. [A coup] will never happen again," he told Bangkok Post.

And on Tuesday, Prayuth told reporters that their question about the possibility of a putsch was "nonsense", before he stormed out of the room.

Titipol Phakdeewanich, a political scientist at Ubon Ratchathani University, said a coup was not likely to happen so easily this time, because the government realised its image was on the line.

"The reputation of the Prayuth government has not been positive in the Western perspective due to its harassment of activists," he said. "The military should take this as a factor to withhold itself from organising a coup that would affect the economy and the government image.

"Both the coup-maker-led government and the military have always realised that maintaining their support for one another is crucial for their common interests and political future," Titipol said.

In the meantime, "the government's use of legal mechanisms will generate a climate of fear and intimidation which will help secure their own power and the military's power".

A Thai student wears a mask caricaturing Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha in Bangkok. Photo: EPA alt=A Thai student wears a mask caricaturing Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha in Bangkok. Photo: EPA

Apirat's hand-picked successor, General Narongpan Jittkaewtae, is tipped to serve as the next army chief. "General Apirat will still be playing his active political roles behind the new army chief" after his retirement, said researcher Sophal.

Apirat was last month appointed as one of King Maha Vajiralongkorn's special guards, along with other soon-to-be-retired commanders of the armed forces. Analysts say the army he leaves behind will continue to solidify the government's power and reject calls for reform by Thais.

Thai police stand guard during a pro-democracy rally in Bangkok. Photo: AFP alt=Thai police stand guard during a pro-democracy rally in Bangkok. Photo: AFP

Surachart Bamrungsuk, a political science professor from Chulalongkorn University, said: "Army reform can happen when there is a willingness to make internal changes, but the Thai army resists changes so there's no opportunity to reform."

After a rogue soldier in February killed 30 people in Thailand's worst mass shooting, Apirat made promises to reform the military, including cleaning up "grey businesses" in the barracks that often prey on low-ranking officers.

But Apirat's promises about cracking down on corruption and abuse in the armed forces and moving towards military professionalism "have not been matched by deeds", said Chambers from Naresuan University.

"In early June, a Thai army sergeant became a whistle-blower when he used a hotline established by Apirat to reveal malfeasance. The sergeant was threatened with court martial," he said.

What the protesters were calling to remove were exactly the things the military wanted to hold on to, Chambers added.

"Democracy can empower civilian activists seeking to increase pluralism, threaten the military's enormous economic privileges, and potentially reduce military clout across the political landscape," he said.

The privileges the Thai military enjoys have offended the public, particularly when arms deals have been used as a tool to maintain relations with China and the US through what Surachart termed an "arms diplomacy".

Earlier this month, the Thai government postponed the navy's procurement of two Chinese submarines worth some US$720 million, after facing a strong public backlash over such spending in the middle of the pandemic.

In July, Apirat welcomed General James McConville, the Chief of Staff of the US Army, when he visited Bangkok to strengthen US ties with its top security ally in Southeast Asia.

During the visit, both agreed to hold joint drills last month, despite public concerns that American troops could bring in risks of coronavirus infection.

The training sessions saw 106 American troops training in three Thai provinces after they completed a mandatory quarantine.

The retirement of Apirat, who during his term tilted Bangkok closer to Washington after the junta previously increased defence cooperation with China from2014 to 2019, could change Thailand's balance between both powers, Chambers said.

"The real Cold War in Thailand between the US and China today centres ... on relative economic influence," he said. "Which country provides more sourcing of military hardware to the Thai military; which country engages in more joint military exercises with the Thais; and which country collaborates more with Thailand in providing military education."

Maintaining good ties with China remained crucial amid the domestic political challenges, security analyst Sophal said.

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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