THE SHORT LIST 11
Who’s going to win the Tour de France? Egan Bernal or Primož Roglic, most likely. Maybe Tom Dumoulin or Geraint Thomas. And, beyond that, you’d get good odds on a handful of outsiders: Nairo Quintana, Thibaut Pinot, Emanuel Buchmann and Tadej Pogacar. The shortlist is short; all the more so considering there are 176 starters.
Three weeks might seem a long time to decide who wins if there are fewer than 10 riders with a realistic chance of winning. Does this make cycling unusual? The tennis Grand Slam men’s singles events aren’t so different after all - 128 starters, and the shortlist of real favourites is three or four, depending on the year. Since 2010, 34 of the 41 tournaments have been won by Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer or Rafal Nadal, with only three other players having shared the remaining seven. Conversely, golf majors mostly start with 156 players, and 29 different players have won one in the
