Singapore election: what's a strong win for the PAP in a season of coronavirus and political succession?

Singapore's ruling party, the People's Action Party (PAP), has appealed for a "strong mandate" in Friday's polls. It is an exhortation that may bewilder foreign observers, given the incumbent's record of dominance.

The PAP, in power for the last six decades, has never lost more than one in 10 parliamentary seats in general elections held since independence in 1965, where its national vote share has yet to slip below 60 per cent " a showing that would leave other ruling parties in competitive democracies envious.

Before Parliament was dissolved on 30 June, the PAP held 83 of 89 elected seats. It received 69.9 per cent of the popular vote in the 2015 general election.

Ruling parties elsewhere are able to rule decisively and legitimately with far slimmer majorities, begging the question of how high the PAP's numbers need to go before it feels it enjoys the confidence and trust of Singapore's 2.65 million voters.

The PAP's 60.1 per cent vote share and six-seat loss in 2011 " even though it did retain 93 per cent of parliamentary seats " was regarded as a major blow, while its 69.9 per cent score, again with six seats lost, was declared a landslide. Although constitutionally insignificant, such swings are symbolically important, translating into political capital for PAP leaders.

"These thresholds have come to indicate the relative degree of satisfaction with the PAP since it has been so overwhelmingly dominant for so long. This remains the case even though they have no practical effect on PAP governance and control," said Chong Ja Ian, associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore (NUS).

Trade and Industry Minister Chan Chun Sing, in a media interview in May, described a strong mandate as essential, given how the country with its economy battered by the coronavirus was facing "the challenge of an entire generation".

When Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong was asked recently if a vote share of below 69 per cent would reflect "a lack of confidence in the new generation of leaders", he replied: "I do not have a target. I never have a numerical target for an election. We go in, give it our all, we fight for every vote."

He further explained that the mood of the campaign and "the vibes, whether people feel that is a good outcome and they are happy with it" mattered as well.

"If you have an election at the end of which you have, let's say, even a very overwhelming majority, but the minority who voted against you are extremely, intensely unhappy with the outcome, the country is divided, there is a lack of trust, mutual lack of respect " which is what's happened in many Western countries, like in the United States " I think that's a bad outcome," he said.

Foreigners not clued in on the dynamics of one-party rule in the Singapore context might think Lee was suggesting the PAP wants total dominance of Parliament. The chief of the largest opposition party " the Workers' Party " has warned of such an outcome or a "wipeout" in seeking voters' support.

While there is every risk of that happening, the ruling party has a far more nuanced understanding of the kind of dominance, and therefore legitimacy, it wants. A total wipeout of the opposition might be embarrassing for the PAP, since it has pledged to keep elections contestable. In the 1980s, the PAP made its intolerance of parliamentary opposition plain. However, in recent decades, it has acknowledged Singaporeans expect some opposition in Parliament, and that the sparring practice in the House could hone its ministers' political skills.

Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong of the ruling People's Action Party arrives at a nomination centre ahead of the general election. Photo: Reuters alt=Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong of the ruling People's Action Party arrives at a nomination centre ahead of the general election. Photo: Reuters

The question then becomes what level of an opposition presence is tolerable. The PAP's share of seats in Parliament has never fallen below 93 per cent in the 12 general elections since independence, though not all seats were contested in previous polls. In 2015, all seats were contested for the first time, with the scenario repeated in this current election.

The PAP's vote share has seen more ups and downs " it was 86.7 per cent in 1968, 77.7 per cent in 1980, 61 per cent in 1991 and 75.3 per cent in 2001 before falling to 60.1 per cent in 2011 and then rebounding in 2015 to 69.9 per cent. These trends suggest Singapore has somewhere between 20 and 30 per cent of voters who will always vote for the opposition, and at the other end, about one-third who will always vote for the ruling party.

As Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan put it in an interview with broadcaster CNBC: "The majority of Singaporean voters are swing voters."

This middle band of voters shifts allegiances depending on the issues of the day. For example, a survey by the state-funded think-tank Institute of Policy Studies found voters aged 21 to 29 and above 65 swung to the ruling party in the 2015 election, on the back of positive housing and health care policies introduced after 2011 that addressed their concerns.

A man walks past the Elections Department in Singapore. Photo: AFP alt=A man walks past the Elections Department in Singapore. Photo: AFP

For the PAP " and perhaps voters too " the psychological threshold seems to be 60 per cent since that is its lowest ever score, according to political analyst Woo Jun Jie.

"In a way, it is as much a psychological threshold as it is a target that the PAP has set for itself based on past results," he said.

The PAP was alarmed in 1991 and again in 2011 by its poll showing, with Lee in the latter year acknowledging that voters, including those who had supported the party, had expressed "significant concerns both on the issues and our approach to government".

The PAP had heard them, he said, and would "learn from this election and put right what is wrong".

More than a decade earlier in 1984 when the PAP suffered a 12.9-percentage-point swing, the party formed a nine-man task force to analyse the results. The government subsequently made constitutional changes allowing for more non-ruling party representation in Parliament, to avoid what leaders described as a "freak" election result of voters exercising the desire for alternative voices at the polling booth but inadvertently toppling the PAP.

In terms of share of seats, 1991 was also a turning point, where for the first time since 1968, the PAP lost four seats to the opposition. It regained two of them in 1997 but another psychological blow came in 2011 when it lost a group representation constituency for the first time since the concept of multiple MPs on one ticket to ensure minority representation was introduced.

The Workers' Party team " led by then party chief Low Thia Khiang " beat a PAP team that comprised three ministerial office-holders, including then Foreign Minister George Yeo, who retired from politics, and new face Ong Ye Kung.

Ong was elected in 2015 and is now Education Minister. In this election and the last one, the PAP fielded what local media called a "suicide squad" in Aljunied GRC comprising party members active in grass roots committees but dispatched no top guns.

Pedestrians in Singapore. Photo: AFP alt=Pedestrians in Singapore. Photo: AFP

To form the government, the PAP needs a simple majority of 47 seats in the 93-seat Parliament. To pass any law, the number is smaller. First, there must be a minimum number of members in attendance " the quorum for voting on laws to take place amounts to one-quarter of MPs.

Presuming there will be 114 MPs " including 12 Non-Constituency MPs (NCMPs) who are the "best losers" from the opposition and have the same rights as elected MPs, and nine Nominated MPs who cannot vote on constitutional amendments " voting can take place with 29 MPs present. For a regular law to be passed, a simple majority of 15 votes is needed.

To change the constitution, though, two-thirds of Parliament would need to agree. If there are just 93 MPs " presuming there is no need for the NCMP seats as 12 opposition members were elected to Parliament " there would need to be a minimum of 63 votes in favour.

Unusually for democracies, opposition parties have tried to reassure voters that they do not intend to, and indeed are incapable of, forming the next government. Most swing voters want more opposition to keep the PAP in check, not to oust it.

The Workers' Party, which in the last election won Aljunied GRC and the single-seat constituency of Hougang, has pointed out that even if it won all 21 seats it was contesting, the PAP would still have 72 seats.

"I'm not sure whether that equates to a weak mandate. I think that's still a strong mandate for the PAP," said WP secretary general Pritam Singh.

But that is not how the PAP would view such an outcome.

Winning 72 out of 93 seats, said political scientist Bilveer Singh, would be the PAP's worst electoral performance since 1959 and "a slap in the face" for Lee, even though the party remains in control of all the levers of power.

"For the PAP, it means the edifice is cracking and collapsing, and it is on the way to losing power," said Bilveer Singh.

The central business district in Singapore. Photo: Reuters alt=The central business district in Singapore. Photo: Reuters

Chong of NUS said a loss of seats would cut deeper than a loss in vote share, as the latter does not translate to the extent of parliamentary control.

"Even one seat or group representation constituency can be seen to be significant, as in the case of the WP's loss of Punggol East in 2015 or the PAP's loss of Aljunied in 2011," he said.

Entrepreneur Inderjit Singh, a former PAP MP who ran as part of PM Lee's team in the Ang Mo Kio constituency from 1996 until 2015, said the party had already shifted its goalpost as vote share dipped through the decades.

"Up to the 1990s, a strong mandate was something above 70 per cent. But in this new environment of a more educated voter base and with better-quality opposition candidates, something around 65 per cent " plus or minus 2 percentage points " can be seen as a strong mandate," he said.

Associate Professor Terence Lee from Murdoch University in Perth, who has watched Singapore elections closely, said the 2001 result of 75.3 per cent was probably a benchmark the party was aiming for. The economic crisis and fears of terrorism that followed the 9/11 terror attacks in the US saw voters return to the PAP.

For the party, he said, "this pandemic general election gives them hope that a flight to safety mentality that tends to kick in during a crisis will help them get there".

Alan Chong, an associate professor at the Nanyang Technological University S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, said the polls would reveal if the high levels of support given to the PAP in 2015 were sustainable or if the 2011 showing was more representative of Singaporeans' appetite for opposition.

The 2015 result was attributed partly to the groundswell of positive sentiment towards the PAP after the death of founding prime minister Lee Kuan Yew and the 50th anniversary of the nation's independence.

Singapore flags in a residential area ahead of the July 10 general election. Photo: EPA alt=Singapore flags in a residential area ahead of the July 10 general election. Photo: EPA

The ruling party has since the time of Lee Kuan Yew made the case that competitive, multiparty politics would only end up splitting up quality talent needed to ensure good governance, given Singapore's vulnerabilities. It had also made it its mission to recruit and co-opt the best available talent it could find from the top layers of various sectors and institutions.

For these reasons, Garry Rodan, honorary professor at the University of Queensland's School of Political Science & International Studies, said the PAP "genuinely believes" it is the only party capable of governing Singapore effectively. Its track record of the country's economic and social transformation in the past five decades validates its conviction.

"The PAP expects and wants to be in total political control. This is deeply rooted in the PAP's view of itself, as a meritocratic elite deserving of exceptional latitude to get on with ruling without too many challenges or scrutiny between elections," said Rodan.

Added Bridget Welsh, honorary research associate at the University of Nottingham Malaysia's Asia Research Institute: "The PAP hold themselves to a standard of complete control and have yet to accept that alternative voices can strengthen Singapore."

Heng Swee Keat, Singapore's deputy prime minister " and leader-in-waiting. Photo: Bloomberg alt=Heng Swee Keat, Singapore's deputy prime minister " and leader-in-waiting. Photo: Bloomberg

A strong mandate is especially important in this election given that it is a time of political succession. Lee's designated successor Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Heng Swee Keat will be on a firm footing if he takes over after a stellar election performance for the party.

Lee, 68, has said he wishes to retire by the time he turns 70 and recently added that he hoped the pandemic would not derail his plans.

Already, Heng has stepped out of his multi-seat ward in Tampines to anchor the East Coast constituency in a straight fight with the WP, while other ministers from the PAP's younger slate of leaders, known as fourth generation " or 4G " leaders are also helming the line-ups at their constituencies.

Welsh said the focus would be on how the poll showings of key 4G leaders compare to each other and the national average.

Rodan said it would be "a little embarrassing" if they did not do well compared to the national average. Heng, however, as the "anointed successor", should "be part of a very emphatic win in his group representative constituency and, more generally, to be setting agendas in wider debates".

Given how Singapore's trade-dependent economy has been battered by the coronavirus, the PAP also wants a show of unity from Singaporeans that it trusts them to take the country through the crisis.

Lee recently said he knew people were "feeling the pain and the uncertainty, because of the crisis, some acutely ... the opposition is making the most of that".

Inderjit Singh said: "The PAP wants voters to send a message to the PAP that they have confidence in the 4G leadership to lead Singapore in the next 10 to 15 years."

He added: "[The PM] wants to leave a legacy of a very good performance before the next team takes over. This was how Goh Chok Tong left " with 75.3 per cent of votes in 2001."

Customers at a hawker centre in Singapore. Photo: EPA alt=Customers at a hawker centre in Singapore. Photo: EPA

The PAP has in recent days doubled down on its argument for Singaporeans to vote for the candidate and party who can best serve them and the country, since there is a constitutional guarantee of at least 12 opposition voices in Parliament under the NCMP scheme, which gives them the same voting rights as elected MPs.

"Everything depends on which government you choose and the mandate that you give it," Lee said recently.

Opposition members such as former NCMP Dennis Tan, who is seeking to help the Workers' Party retain its single-seat ward of Hougang, has described the scheme as a "poisoned chalice" while former PAP stalwart turned opposition party leader Tan Cheng Bock said it was a "ploy" to entice voters to support the PAP.

Indeed, the PAP is seeking to mobilise its base and persuade swing voters to come to its side.

But there is also a danger that they might do too good a job, resulting in another kind of freak election where they win all seats, which could then attract its own set of issues for the party, including potential criticisms of whether the contest was fair.

Chong, the NUS political scientist, said the PAP's high vote share was a unique situation "almost anywhere in the world where there are effectively contested elections, with the exception of electoral authoritarian systems ... that do not allow changeover in parties in executive office."

Zulkifli Baharudin, a businessman and former NMP from 1997 to 2001, said the PAP was most concerned with maintaining its core political support, in spite of the "unceasing appetite for opposition".

"Of course, any party wants to win as much as it can, if it can take all. But for the PAP, what it is most sensitive to, is to make sure its social compact with its voters is at least maintained, if not enhanced."

Inderjit Singh predicted the PAP was "likely prepared to lose a couple more single seats" with the WP holding on to Aljunied.

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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