<![CDATA[Coronavirus: a scientific inquiry could prevent a US-China war]>

Often, the biggest catastrophes come with a silver lining. Throughout history, disasters have forced us to learn painful lessons that have spurred significant change and helped humanity to progress. The coronavirus pandemic will be no different.

Thus it is only reasonable and sensible that when the pandemic subsides the world will want to conduct a serious scientific study into it, to investigate how the virus spread and whether the actions governments took against it worked.

Given the damage the virus has done to the human race, this is imperative to answer a string of unanswered questions. Among the most pressing of these are whether the pandemic was inevitable; whether humans and their lifestyles were to blame; what roles globalisation, inequality and ecological degradation played; and what should be done to stop similar problems in future.

Medical scientists, virologists, immunologists, epidemiologists and pharmacologists are all eager to trace the origins of the virus and see how " and whether " it passed from animal to human.

It is extremely important for them to learn about and understand the virus' characteristics. They will want to identify its source and cause, and reason for its spread.

Scientific studies will help public health departments work out more effective quarantine measures to contain its spread in the future, and support the development of a vaccine, medicines, and protective equipment.

The Covid-19 outbreak has exposed flaws in global public health security and management systems. Academic studies will help to upgrade these systems as well as boost global cooperation, coordination and management.

The pandemic has also been a wake-up call for people to realise they are living under two different kinds of threat, one from nature, one from mankind itself.

An escalating war of words over the pandemic between China and the United States and its Western allies has plunged relations to a historic low. An independent inquiry is the best way to resolve this dispute and defuse the tension.

Besides which, given the fact that the whole world has been affected, people in general have a legitimate right to ask questions about what happened, how governments responded and whether anybody or any group should be held accountable.

The global public and governments in the free world are both calling for such an inquiry, but China has so far resisted because Beijing is " legitimately " suspicious that these calls are driven by people who seek to play a blame game with China.

Many states with important trade ties to China " like Germany, France, Australia and New Zealand " want an inquiry. So, too, does the United Nations, whose secretary general Antonio Guterres has said "there must be a time to look back fully to understand how such a disease emerged and spread its devastation so quickly across the globe, and how all those involved reacted to the crisis".

For sure, such an investigation must be conducted independently, in a fair, objective and balanced manner. It should also be depoliticised and based on science, evidence, fact and truth. However, political sensitivity should not be allowed to stand in its way.

An independent investigation would be the best way to peacefully resolve the disputes and escalating tensions. Left unresolved, these have the potential to trigger war, as US President Donald Trump has raised the possibility of seeking compensation from China.

An inquiry could clear Beijing of what it has repeatedly rejected as groundless and unfounded accusations against it. Only established facts and scientific evidence can clear the air.

If there is no such investigation, Beijing will bear the burden of history as most of the Western world and beyond believe China needs to be held to account. For instance, Beijing's suppression of information and action against whistle-blowers early on in the outbreak convinced many in the West that Beijing was trying to cover something up.

The pandemic has sowed the seeds of distrust, and even hatred, of China. An opinion poll by Harris Insights and Analytics found that 55 per cent of respondents felt Beijing was to blame for the pandemic. Another poll, by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, found that half of Americans supported class-action lawsuits to seek damages from China.

Morally speaking, the world owes a clear answer about the pandemic to those who have died and their relatives. Finding out the facts behind the pandemic is the only way to give closure to those who have suffered.

China should conduct its own investigation to find out the truth behind the outbreak in the country. Civil groups and rights advocates at home and abroad are demanding such an investigation, particularly after the death of coronavirus whistle-blower doctor Li Wenliang.

In an apparent effort to crack down on unsanctioned information, the state broadcaster CCTV reported on January 2 that Wuhan police had interrogated eight whistle-blowers, all frontline doctors, including Li. His death on Feb 7 triggered an outpouring of public anger and sorrow at home and abroad, as well as fury at Chinese officials.

Not even the greatest science-fiction writer can predict what will happen tomorrow, but it is a near certainty that Covid-19 will not be the last time humanity has to deal with a pandemic.

What is most important is that we learn from this catastrophe so that we can avoid falling into the trap George Santayana identified, that "those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it".

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

Copyright (c) 2020. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.