<![CDATA[Can New Zealand really eliminate the coronavirus? Experts are divided]>

As governments around the world were busy trying to "flatten the curve" of coronavirus cases last month, New Zealand set itself a radical goal " squash the curve by eliminating new transmissions completely.

After initiating a month-long nationwide lockdown on March 26 in response to the pandemic, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and her cabinet will on Monday decide whether they have made enough progress to ease some of the most severe restrictions on everyday life anywhere in the Western world.

By taking even harsher measures than democratic peers such as Britain, the United States and Australia, the island nation hopes to not only avert mass sickness and death, but avoid prolonging the massive social and economic consequences of a shutdown by emerging from the pandemic sooner.

"Flattening the curve is better than nothing, but as we've seen around the world, can still lead to many deaths, health systems stretched to breaking point, and continued disruption and restrictions for months to come," said Michael Plank, a statistics expert at the University of Canterbury whose modelling has informed the government's response.

New Zealand's Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is widely anticipated to soon announce a loosening of some coronavirus restrictions. Photo: Xinhua alt=New Zealand's Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is widely anticipated to soon announce a loosening of some coronavirus restrictions. Photo: Xinhua

So far, the Level 4 measures " including closing schools and all non-essential businesses, requiring people to stay indoors except for grocery shopping or exercise close to home, and urging them to avoid those outside their household " have produced promising results.

New Zealand on Sunday announced nine new confirmed and probable coronavirus cases, down from 18 the previous week and 89 a fortnight earlier. Some 900 patients have recovered, and more than 83,000 tests have been processed.

The country, which confirmed its first case in late February and initiated its near-total lockdown when it had only about 100 confirmed cases, has recorded about 1,400 confirmed and probable infections overall and 12 deaths " one of the lowest tolls of any developed country. In Ireland , which has a similar population of about 5 million people, about 570 people have died out of more than 14,000 confirmed cases so far.

With the number of new cases dropping to single digits, Ardern's government is widely anticipated to announce a loosening of some restrictions ahead of the end of the initial lockdown period on Wednesday " although many businesses such as pubs are expected to remain closed while others such as hardware stores and restaurants may be only permitted to take orders online or by phone.

Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters also suggested last week that New Zealand could open up its borders to neighbouring Australia before other countries in light of the dwindling number of cases there. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison on Friday said he was "aware" of such intentions but had no plans to alter his country's border arrangements.

A police checkpoint on a motorway in Australia. Prime Minister Scott Morrison says he has no intention as yet of changing his country's border arrangement. Photo: AFP alt=A police checkpoint on a motorway in Australia. Prime Minister Scott Morrison says he has no intention as yet of changing his country's border arrangement. Photo: AFP

While cautioning that life will not return to normalcy soon, Ardern, who leads the centre-left Labour Party, has suggested her country could become the first to eliminate the virus entirely within its borders.

Nick Wilson, a professor of public health at the University of Otago who has advised the government, said he believed New Zealand now had a 75 per cent chance of reaching zero new infections within the next 1-2 months, after which a 14-day quarantine period at the border would need to be maintained until the arrival of a vaccine.

"The numbers of new cases have been tracking down for over a week and testing has been expanding," Wilson said. "Also contact tracing processes are improving. As an island nation with good border controls, New Zealand has a track record of eliminating other diseases and an invasive mosquito species that was quite widespread."

The strategy has attracted particular attention in Australia " which implemented strict social distancing controls but has allowed most businesses to remain open " where there have been more than 65 deaths, although its 6,500-odd cases are fewer than New Zealand's total on a per capita basis.

A blog post by the Australian left-leaning Grattan Institute earlier this month described New Zealand as "the envy of the world" and suggested that if Australia could "hold the course for a little while longer we could beat the virus too".

"New Zealand was lucky enough to be able to learn from what happened in other countries and to act decisively before numbers got too high," said Plank from the University of Canterbury. "But for me, one of the most outstanding things about New Zealand's response is that the government has clearly articulated and communicated its strategy at every step."

New Zealand's drastic response has come at an enormous economic and social cost. Like most economies, the country is hurtling toward a major recession, with the country's treasury predicting unemployment could hit 13 per cent even if the lockdown is lifted on Wednesday, as originally planned.

Riddhi Shah, a physiotherapist in Auckland, said she had to cancel all appointments with clients shortly before the lockdown, when the country was at Level 3.

"With no income, the government funds help to some extent, but not much as I have to pay the housing rent, my clinic rent, and all other expenses like insurance, accounting fees, basic bills, loans and buying basic needs like groceries and meds," said Shah. "So it's really a hard time being a small-business owner."

Neighbours talk while maintaining physical distance in New Zealand. Photo: AP alt=Neighbours talk while maintaining physical distance in New Zealand. Photo: AP

Rachael Lalla, co-owner of New Wave NZ Surfboards in the northeastern city of Gisborne, said she had been able to keep staff on the payroll thanks to a wage subsidy introduced by the government, but was concerned about the weeks and months ahead.

"The long-term effect is yet to come," she said. "The lack of cash flow from being shut for four weeks will come into effect next month, when all the usual bills need to be paid, and is a medium-term concern.

"Our biggest concern is how people will spend after Level 4," said Lalla. "Will people be careful with their money as there is a predicted recession coming? Have some of our customers lost their jobs and no longer can afford a 'luxury' item like a new surfboard?"

With a recession looming, some New Zealand business owners are concerned about the change in consumer spending in the months to come. Photo: EPA alt=With a recession looming, some New Zealand business owners are concerned about the change in consumer spending in the months to come. Photo: EPA

Some public health experts have questioned whether the government may have overreacted with draconian measures that could ultimately do more harm than good.

Last week, a group of academics specialising in fields including public health, law and economics unveiled an alternative to the government's plan out of concern the current approach could "substantially harm the nation's long-term health and well-being, social fabric, economy, and education".

The controversial "Plan B" strategy calls for the reopening of businesses, schools and universities and the lifting of bans on domestic travel and leisure activities, while maintaining social distancing for vulnerable people, strict border controls and restrictions on gatherings of more than 100 people.

A driver wearing a face mask delivers groceries to a home in New Zealand amid the lockdown. Photo: AP alt=A driver wearing a face mask delivers groceries to a home in New Zealand amid the lockdown. Photo: AP

"I don't believe eradication of a virus like this in which a high proportion of infection is asymptomatic is realistic," said Simon Thornley, a senior lecturer of epidemiology at Auckland University, and one of the academics behind Plan B.

"Australia's population rates of Covid-19 per capita are lower than New Zealand's and falling faster than in New Zealand. That strongly suggests we are not getting any benefit from the firmer lockdown that New Zealand has carried out compared to Australia's more relaxed approach," he said.

The plan has been criticised by some, including Siouxsie Wiles, an associate professor and microbiologist from the University of Auckland who noted in an editorial that Australia's efforts involved individual states "making their own decisions about how to deal with the virus, and usually ahead of government announcements".

Supporters of the elimination strategy have themselves acknowledged that success is not assured, while the prime minister has warned against complacency that could see the country "lose everything" achieved so far.

"I think we're realistic that, while elimination is worth attempting, it's not going to be easy and will take time," Plank said. "Our case numbers have dropped during the lockdown, but it's likely they will spike back up again once restrictions are lifted unless we really can eliminate it."

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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