<![CDATA[New Zealand looks to be winning the coronavirus war, but does Jacinda Ardern deserve the plaudits?]>
It was Thursday, April 9. New Zealand was at the halfway point of its four-week lockdown. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern was holding her Covid-19 press conference, now a near-daily ritual.
Dr Ashley Bloomfield, 54, the country's ectomorphic, quietly unflappable director-general of health, had just reported the day's numbers: 29 new cases and 35 recoveries. Every afternoon, New Zealanders anxiously watched as the numbers were announced.
"You are breaking the chain of transmission," Ardern (or Jacinda, as we mostly call her) said in commendation to her compatriots.
But then she began to plead with the public. Now was not the time for complacency, she said. "While most are doing the right thing, some are not."
The impending Easter weekend was clearly weighing on her. Easter commemorates Jesus' death and resurrection, and has long been a major holiday in a country where Christianity is the most common religion.
Lingering summer weather was beckoning many to go to their holiday homes, but by the end of Good Friday, reports were mixed. Some seaside residents saw visitors; others didn't.
Friday, April 10, saw 44 new cases and 56 recoveries. One more death brought the total to two.
A pedestrian walks along an empty street during a lockdown in Auckland. Photo: Bloomberg alt=A pedestrian walks along an empty street during a lockdown in Auckland. Photo: Bloomberg
This Easter, New Zealand had reason to be cautiously optimistic. While countries like Italy, Spain, and the United States were barely able to stem the terrible tide of Covid-19 infections, New Zealand's goal was the total elimination of the disease from its shores. To paraphrase Churchill, our policy is victory.
Now humanity in all its fears is watching this small country in the South Pacific to see whether such a victory is possible. Already an international feminist icon, Ardern has won plaudits around the world for her crisis leadership.
But it would be false to say her government has made no missteps. On the first weekend after the lockdown began, health minister David Clark drove his family 20km (12 miles) to a beach in violation of the lockdown order. Ardern demoted Clark over the scandal, but kept him on to avoid disruption.
On April 9, Ardern announced additional measures to fight Covid-19, including mandatory quarantine for all overseas arrivals and ramping up testing. She presented them as ways to redouble efforts now that New Zealand was halfway through the four-week period, but critics had already called for some of them.
Testing initially took time to ramp up. And until the Easter weekend, most arrivals had been able to go on their way as long as they had credible self-isolation plans.
The opposition National Party had called for mandatory quarantines for some time. Without saying so, Ardern had basically accepted her political opponents' criticism. After her announcement, opposition leader Simon Bridges said: "Better late than never."
Holy Saturday, April 11: 29 new cases, 49 recoveries, and two more deaths. One police officer was injured while enforcing the lockdown.
New Zealand was also only now looking to introduce TraceTogether, the Bluetooth-based contact-tracing app used in Singapore. When questioned by reporters, Ardern visibly struggled with its implications as the leader of a liberal democracy.
"There are huge issues," she said, "with forcing people to use an app that tracks their movements." But if use of the app were on a voluntary basis, then it would be useless unless most opted in.
Covid-19 has raised the time-honoured debate between autocracy and democracy. China, the first country to face the pandemic, locked down hundreds of millions of its citizens using its vast public security apparatus. Democratic countries subsequently could not employ similarly draconian measures.
Certainly New Zealand is not China. In reality, the lockdown in New Zealand has mostly functioned as an honour system. "Essential travel" is permitted, but the meaning of "essential" is up for interpretation. When I called the government hotline to clarify whether a specific purpose of travel was deemed "essential", the official on the phone answered, "It's mostly a matter of common sense."
Some prosecutions have resulted from enforcement, but still police officers mostly warn and "educate" potential violators of the lockdown.
This is the sort of kid-gloved leadership one finds in a country like this. Besides discussing such minutiae as the price of cauliflower, Ardern took time recently to assure the children of New Zealand that the Easter bunny was an "essential worker" allowed to operate. Try to imagine Xi Jinping saying anything similar.
Easter Sunday: 18 new cases, 49 recoveries.
Foreign tourists arrive outside the Christchurch Airport terminal as they prepare to check in for a charter flight back to Germany on April 6. Photo: AP alt=Foreign tourists arrive outside the Christchurch Airport terminal as they prepare to check in for a charter flight back to Germany on April 6. Photo: AP
Does Ardern, then, deserve the international adulation for her leadership during Covid-19? Or has New Zealand done well in this crisis primarily because of its natural advantages?
It is literally at the end of the earth, a remote island nation with no land borders. Most residents live in houses on individual lots spread across generous spaces. Most also eschew public transport in favour of private vehicles. The crowded undergrounds of New York or Tokyo are impossible here. "We benefit from a very large moat," Ardern recently acknowledged.
Geography aside, New Zealand is a country of strong social cohesion and high trust in government. And Ardern is precisely the sort of clever next-door-neighbour leader that this country tends to produce, if an exceptionally youthful and charismatic one at only 39.
The New Zealand police may lack the power to crack down like Chinese authorities, but they don't need it. As in the thinking of Chinese philosopher Mencius, a government with true authority governs by persuasion.
A new hotline allows New Zealanders to report on neighbours suspected of violating the lockdown. In Eastern Europe, such a measure would bring back terrifying memories of the communist era. Here, it is no big deal.
Indeed, in Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orban has used the crisis to assume dictatorial powers. In the US, Americans sceptical of government warnings insisted on attending Easter services in person.
Not so in New Zealand. In a more cynical jurisdiction, the government slogans on Covid-19 ("be kind", and kia kaha " Maori for "be strong") could sound like meaningless propaganda. But here the prime minister says them with all sincerity, and so does everyone else.
New Zealand's director-general of health Dr Ashley Bloomfield. Photo: Xinhua alt=New Zealand's director-general of health Dr Ashley Bloomfield. Photo: Xinhua
As in any liberal democracy, many New Zealanders disagree with Ardern and her Labour Party. But, in this particular liberal democracy, if the prime minister " if Jacinda " tells us that we all need to stay home for the greater good, then by and large we will comply.
In New Zealand, it is not unusual to have very few degrees of separation from political leaders. I, for one, met Jacinda when we were both high school students, and we have mutual friends. It's not just the prime minister asking me to stay home; it's a friend of a friend.
Back on the podium on Easter Monday, Ardern again reiterated the need not to give in to complacency. "Week three may be the hardest," she said. "We're coming around the bend but can't quite see the finish line."
Monday, April 13: 19 new cases, 75 recoveries, and one more death.
A reporter asked director-general of health Bloomfield, again standing beside Ardern, to comment on calls to name him "New Zealander of the Year". He replied in his usual soft, equanimous voice: "Leadership is an invitation to collective action." He was only lucky, he said, that New Zealand "has accepted that invitation".
On April 14, the country recorded 17 new cases and 82 recoveries, but four more deaths underscored that victory was not yet won.
Even so, the positive trend continued over the next two days: 20 new cases and 100 recoveries on April 15, 15 new cases and 42 recoveries on April 16, and no additional deaths. While still cautioning the public against complacency, Ardern has begun preparing to ease some restrictions.
This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).
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