<![CDATA[Three ways Asia can beat the coronavirus: take early action, be nimble, learn from others]>

To many of the Chinese diaspora living in Singapore, the decision on April 3 to impose stricter measures to contain Covid-19 in the city state was long-awaited and a huge relief.

Having been made acutely aware of the devastating effects of the coronavirus outbreak in mainland China in the past couple of months, they found it beyond belief and appalling that schools remained open in Singapore, and most people on the streets opted not to wear masks.

The measures came as the number of confirmed cases in Singapore rose sharply in recent weeks, along with a more worrying trend of infections through community transmission. On Tuesday, all schools shifted to full home-based learning for four weeks, and except for those providing essential services, shops and businesses were closed.

A man crosses an empty street in the central business district of Singapore. Photo: AFP

Noticeably, the government has also changed its stance on face masks, no longer discouraging people from wearing them and distributing reusable masks to all residents. Other states in East Asia may soon follow suit by stepping up their containment measures as there has been an acceleration in confirmed cases recently.

This turn of events is in stark contrast to the global acclaim pouring to East Asia for its success in fighting the Covid-19 pandemic. For example, Singapore's case-tracking methods were in February held up by the World Health Organisation (WHO) as the "gold standard" in the Covid-19 fight. South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha was invited to share her country's experience in fighting the coronavirus at a World Economic Forum meeting. Japan and Taiwan have also won applause across the world for their efforts in curtailing the outbreak.

Indeed it is nothing short of a miracle that the situation has been under control in East Asia given the proximity to mainland China where the outbreak originated, and that the surge of infected cases as seen in a growing number of countries around the world has been averted so far. It is even more remarkable that this has been done without imposing strict containment measures such as a lockdown and economic shutdown.

Have we seen the last of the East Asia "miracle" in fighting Covid-19 as it is hit hard by new waves of outbreaks?

What are the lessons, if any, from East Asia in fighting the Covid-19 pandemic? It might be useful to unravel several claims about lessons from East Asia made by commentators, reporters, and health professionals around the world.

Lessons from East Asia

The first such claim is that the experience of fighting past epidemics, such as Sars and Mers, has helped East Asia to dodge a deadlier path. While the claim sounds reasonable, Covid-19 is unlike any other epidemic in history, and there could be catastrophic consequences if it is tackled with policy measures used in the past. For example, the prevalence in asymptomatic transmission of Covid-19 is a unique pattern that may render existing rules and practices based on experience in fighting past epidemics defenceless in fighting Covid-19.

The second such claim is that the emphasis of the Asian value of collectivism over individualism " a factor often attributed to the emergence of the East Asia miracle in the second half of last century " is one of the main reasons behind East Asia's success in fighting the Covid-19 pandemic. Such a claim is not only unhelpful in drawing valuable lessons for countries outside East Asia, but can also lead to complacency in East Asia itself. Given the enormous uncertainty about how the virus may transmit

and the impacts of various containment strategies on daily life, it is unrealistic to count on collectivism and voluntary compliance in curtailing the spread of the virus.

The third claim is that political leadership plays a decisive role in flighting Covid-19 in East Asia. While the handling of the pandemic by US President Donald Trump has provided ample evidence of the consequences of a lack of political leadership, a wide range of actors beyond politicians must also provide leadership, such as public health experts, scientists, health care professionals, and private sector leaders. In the case of Hong Kong, for example, public trust in the government has been at an all-time low due to anti-government protests, and it would be unrealistic to rely upon political leadership alone in fighting the pandemic.

While no country is expected to emerge from the coronavirus crisis unscathed, some countries and cities will do better than others. East Asia can continue its success in fighting Covid-19 while offering valuable lessons to the rest of the world, but leaders from both the public and private sectors must demonstrate prudence in making major resolutions. They have to relentlessly challenge key assumptions of their decisions by thinking strategically across three dimensions: thinking ahead, thinking again and thinking across.

Thinking Ahead

One important lesson from East Asia's success so far is to take early action. Restricting travel, testing, and contact tracing allowed East Asian states to avoid more drastic and potentially more costly containment strategies later on, such as lockdowns and economic shutdown. They must continue to think ahead by scanning for new crises or opportunities on the horizon and be prepared to act timeously. For example, early measures can be taken to minimise potential economic and social fallouts as economic and social crises loom. Given the inevitable changes to the current system of globalisation, especially global supply chains, acting early may enable them to minimise transitional costs while seeking to develop new areas of strengths.

Thinking Again

Early successes can create blind spots for decision makers that can lead to inertia for resisting necessary changes when circumstances shift. Neither global admiration of their current approaches nor strong endorsement from the WHO should mislead East Asian states into believing that they already have optimal solutions in hand. Instead, they must look out for new evidence and changes that might challenge the assumptions of their existing policies or measures, and stand ready to modify or even completely reverse decisions that were proven successful early on.

A man has his temperature checked in his car in Seoul, South Korea. Photo: EPA-EFE

Thinking Across

It is increasingly clear that the effects of policies and measures adopted by individual countries are determined not only by the responses to them domestically, but also by measures adopted in other countries due to the global nature of the pandemic. For example, the mitigation strategies in East Asia might be adequate if all countries adopt strict measures as seen in China, but the effectiveness of such strategies might be undermined if different countries use different strategies with varying degrees of

success. Thinking across is also critical as they can learn from the successes and failures in containment efforts across different localities.

It is too early to write off the prospect of the East Asia miracle in fighting Covid-19. The transformative changes in East Asia in the last few decades have been truly extraordinary, and we should not count it out for delivering a miraculous performance in fighting the pandemic.

Xun Wu is a professor and head of the Division of Public Policy at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Liang Ma is a professor of the School of Public Administration and Policy and a research fellow of the National Academy of Development and Strategy at Renmin University of China in Beijing.

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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