THE CORONA SCARE

Just four days before the Ides of March, the gravity of the novel coronavirus outbreak (Covid-19) has hit home hard. Within a day, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared Covid-19 a global pandemic. Soon after, India revoked all visas issued to nationals of any country till April 15. To top it all, US President Donald Trump barred arrivals from 26 European countries that are part of the Schengen passport-free zone for 30 days to the US. The world’s ninth-largest economy, Italy, is already in lockdown as the impact of coronavirus spreads globally. As countries lock down over the spread of Covid-19, economists now fear it may drive the global economy into a recession. Especially, if crude price and production war between Saudi Arabia and Russia causes a sustained spell of lower prices across other energy and metals baskets, triggering a global recession.

The economic fallout of the global coronavirus pandemic could lead to $2.7 trillion in lost output across the world, according to a Bloomberg report. That could include recessions in the US, Euro area and Japan and the slowest growth on record in China. The Indian economy that was showing some tepid signs of growth after a prolonged slowdown could hit the brakes again. This is driven by extended closure of businesses leading to lower consumption of goods and services. As India prepares to impose social restrictions to prevent rapid spread of the virus, at least six states – Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Karnataka, Maharashtra,