What If ASEAN Ceased to Exist?
“It is tempting to say, ‘There’ll be no difference’, but ASEAN’s influence runs deeper than meets the eye”
It seems whimsical to envision an alternative future without ASEAN. But in fact, the current global climate – where the ASEAN countries face uncertainties that challenge their futures – tempts countries to doubt the benefits of regional cooperation and magnify its constraints. Transactional “me first” attitudes and shifting power balances have magnified petty differences between countries. Narratives of nationalism are on the rise, together with critical views of whether governments can ensure the security and development of their population. Without the weight of regional commitment, natural differences would heighten suspicions and inhibit travel and trade.
Economically speaking, countries with high numbers of unemployed youth, poverty, natural disasters, or conflicts have the most to lose without ASEAN. Smaller economies would be increasingly dependent on larger powers outside the region for their survival, affecting the region’s niche as an entrepot and thoroughfare. And with tariffs and barriers to trade and investment back in place, only countries with more open systems can effectively negotiate a space in the global trade environment.
Life in Southeast Asia would also see large
