CHASING GREAT

There are different schools of thought about how to assess whether an international team is tracking well or not a year out from a World Cup.

There used to be this theory that the All Blacks too often peaked at the wrong time of the cycle – that they were playing outstanding rugby that had little room for growth 18 months to a year before the tournament, meaning they were inevitably going to be in decline by the time they reached the World Cup.

But the All Blacks were playing outstanding rugby in 2010 just as they were in 2006 and yet they won the World Cup in 2011 and bombed out in the quarter-final in 2007

So there isn’t really a lot of stock to be held in that argument and nor is there any reason to believe that a team which could be in chaos a year out from the World Cup has no chance of turning itself around.

England were in a horrible state in late 2006 and equally shambolic as they headed into the 2007 World Cup, where it transpired many of the players had fallen out with the coach.

But against all indications, they made the final and were maybe just one kinder refereeing decision away from winning.

It was the same in 1999 with France. They were a mess in the Five Nations that year and all over the place when the tournament kicked off and yet they made it to the semi-final where they beat the All Blacks.

It is understandable that there is this desire to contrast and